2024: The Hottest Year Ever Recorded?

Introduction
Year 2024 is on course to be the hottest on record so far in the wake of a now-soaring global temperatures record. According to Copernicus Climate Change Service, the European climate monitoring agency, the average global temperature anomaly for the period from January to August 2024 recorded 0.70°C above the baseline of 1991-2020, the highest ever recorded during this period. This now puts 2024 on course to be even hotter than 2023, which up until now had ranked as one of the hottest years ever.

Record-Breaking Temperatures
According to the C3S report, the global temperature for the first eight months of 2024 was 0.23°C warmer than for the same period in 2023. If 2024 is not to overtake 2023 as the warmest year, then the temperature anomaly during the remainder of the year must be at least 0.30°C lower. However, scientists at C3S say such a fall in temperature hasn’t happened since 1940, and it’s getting increasingly likely that 2024 will set a new record for global warmth.

In the latest data, August 2024 tied with August 2023 for the warmest August on record at 16.82°C–0.71°C above the 1991-2020 average for the month. So far this year has also experienced a number of all-time temperature records, including: the hottest June and August on record, and the highest global temperatures for the boreal summer .
Global Temperatures Rising
This follows from the fact that the C3S data states that the average temperature for the last 12 months is the highest average temperature for any consecutive 12 months on record. The temperature average was 0.76°C above the baseline of 1991-2020 and 1.64°C above the pre-industrial average of 1850-1900. These record averages are the same as recorded in the past two successive 12-month periods ending in June and July 2024.

All over the world, there is a continuous rise in temperatures, which is attributed to human activities causing changes in climate; it has increased the level of greenhouse gas emissions and environmental degradations. The impacts of rising temperature have been felt all over the world in many cases as extreme weather events.

August Sea Surface Temperatures
In concert with record land-based temperatures, sea surface temperatures reached near-record heights in August 2024. The sea surface temperature averaged 20.91°C for the latitudes spanning from 60°S to 60°N, or second highest on record for August. This was only 0.07°C below the August 2023 value, reflecting a highly persistent warmth over the oceans.

Although this may have been below the average equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures, which typically indicate the beginning of a La Niña event, many other ocean regions around the world showed record-high temperatures. This is quite an alarming situation because the long-term increasing trend of the ocean temperature can trigger cascading effects on marine ecosystems and both the local and global climate systems.

Implications for the Future
According to the data from C3S, this constitutes yet another increase in the growing trend of rising global temperatures. It is a change that will have severe implications for the globe. Therefore, as temperature is likely to continue to rise, so will the frequency and scale of natural disasters, heatwaves, wildfires, or extreme storms, posing a serious risk to ecosystems, economies, and human health around the world.

So far, this marks the 13th month out of the last 14 that the global average surface air temperature has risen more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This is an important figure in international climate agreements, since many believe that exceeding this level will greatly increase the risk of severe climate impacts.

This tends to give an indication of how urgent it is for the world to try and reduce these emissions and hence further limit warming. Otherwise, the Earth might see even more extreme records in the coming years, with potentially disastrous consequences for natural systems and human life.

Conclusion
With 2024 continuing to break records of temperature, it is clear that this year will, in all likelihood, beat 2023 as the warmest year on record. The inexorable rise of temperatures on the planet, along with unusual patterns in sea surface temperatures, only underlines the accelerating impact of climate change. Urgent climate action is more critical now than ever, with the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.

Source:
Data and analysis in this article are taken from the most recent reports from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

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