The adverse impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture output, marine ecosystems, and water resources have been mounting one after the other. It brings severe challenges for the country. Officials estimated that the increased temperature will lower the rice and wheat output of India by 6-10%. Millions of Indians are facing serious threats to their food security. It is also making warmer coastal waters push fish into deeper seas, affecting the livelihood of the fishing community.
Impact on Agriculture
India is the world’s greatest producer of wheat and rice. In 2023-24 crop years, it churned out around 113.29 million tones of wheat constituting roughly about 14 per cent of worldwide production, in addition to rice production totaling up to 137 million tons per year, to which these two staple grain constitute the bottom base by which 1.4 billion feeds themselves and some 80% depend upon a subsidized foodgrain which later reaches them all through the means of schemes managed by the state.
However, climate change is going to decrease it heavily. According to India Meteorological Department, Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, due to rising temperature, the yield of wheat and rice may decrease by 6–10% in the future. As per a study by National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture, wheat is likely to decline by as much as 6–25% by the year 2100, while irrigated rice may decline by 7% by 2050 and by 10% by 2080.
This is pretty disturbing because it is said that almost half the population of India depends on agriculture, and over 80 percent of farmers have less than two hectares of land.
Rising Ocean Temperatures and Implications for Fisheries
An example of one of these types of problems facing the fishing industry off the coast of India is warmer oceans that are forcing fish to swim much further out to sea just to find cooler waters to survive. That reduces offshore catches and cuts directly into coastal communities whose ways of life depend on the fishing industry.
“Like humans, fish prefer cooler waters. Rising sea temperatures are pushing them away from the coast, creating significant challenges for the fishing industry,” said M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences.
Decline of Western Disturbances
The Western Disturbances are disturbances of the weather that originate over the Mediterranean; one of the reasons for winter rainfall and snowfalls in northwest India. Global warming is reducing them in frequency as well as strength. The losses due to less water availability resulting from the retreat of snow as well as ice are catastrophic both at the Himalayas and the plains lying below.
This region is being left with low accumulation of snow and melting to the waters since the Himalayas and Hindukush commonly referred as the Third Pole is losing the world’s greatest reserves outside the polar region. Its need caters for more than two billion people among whom includes Indian, China, and other neighbor’s.
“The decline in snow input and the increase in melting are alarming trends. Water availability is declining, which is a serious issue for the future,” Ravichandran warned.
Challenges in Weather Forecasting
Climatic change is also making the weather forecasting complex. Higher atmospheric instability decreases the lead time of extreme weather events’ prediction. As reported by a research, the predictability time for heavy rainfall event may decrease to one and a half days from three days which may further enhance the unpreparedness in the face of extreme weather.
Temperature Trends in India
The average temperature in India has risen by about 0.7 degrees Celsius over the last century, or since 1901 to 2018, according to data released by the IMS. It was the warmest year in India since 1901 in 2024; it was when average minimum temperatures stood 0.90 degrees Celsius above the long-term average.
Critical Urgency for Action
The conclusive evidence to be executed sound strategies to mitigate and adapt accordingly is the impacts of climate change on agriculture, marine ecosystems, and water resources. Some of the measures taken for reducing the vulnerabilities of climate-resilient agriculture, promotion of sustainable fishing, and maintaining efficient use of water resources are some of the steps taken.
India’s large dependence on agriculture and fishing activities makes it even more relevant to link climate policies with developmental aims in terms of securing livelihoods and ensuring food security for an increasing population.