Data-Driven Decision Making: The Future of India's Urban Climate Action

A recent WRI study clearly articulates what potential Indian cities can contribute toward emission cuts up to 2050. More importantly, Indian cities may actually unlock nearly 77% of the total city emissions. The research thus underlines the importance of researching into those sectors with the highest cuts, using the Climate Action for Urban Sustainability, or CURB, tool. On the basis of its survey, conducted by WRI India, the study elaborates on the challenges that cities face in addressing emissions but also gives heavy emphasis to the transformative impact that data collection, scenario modeling, and capacity building will have in enabling cities to meet ambitious climate targets. According to WRI, "if cities can overcome these challenges, they can be central to India's overall efforts to mitigate climate change and build more resilient urban environments.". Data-Driven Climate Strategies for Urban Emissions Such studies will help figure out how CURB, a tool developed by the World Bank and its collaborators, can be used to help cities like Surat, Indore, and Ujjain devise specific emission reduction strategies. As it can analyze local data, it helps identify sectors that include buildings, energy, and public lighting as where the most feasible emission reductions can be made. WRI claims that even use of this tool will enable cities to tackle between 70 percent and 77 percent of their projected emissions by 2050 against business-as-usual scenarios. It has been noted that despite its potential, the study also emphasizes the data limitations that hamper the full implementation of the study. Most mitigation strategies thus are likely to be based on incomplete data since data-driven exercises are bound by the capability of city-level institutions. This can even reduce the accuracy of emissions projections and the effectiveness of mitigation actions. The arguments presented by the authors of the study are that if data collection and scenario modeling was strengthened, then cities will be able to set more ambitious yet feasible climate targets. These tools enable the cities to evaluate all future possibilities and can point toward which are the most impactful in reducing emissions. They are, hence, an important part of a city-level climate action plan. Sector-specific Emissions reduction plans The CURB analysis was used by the WRI to develop sector-specific emissions reduction plans in three Indian cities: Surat, Indore, and Ujjain. For example, the energy sector has emerged as a critical area of reductions, with grid decarbonization reduction in GHG emission from electricity generation likely to contribute significantly to cuts in the sector. Grid decarbonisation in the three cities was to contribute, on average, to 39% of the overall cuts in emissions by 2030. Others involved the connection of solar power systems at home and energy-efficient lighting. The two measures would reduce emissions by 28% and 15%, respectively. Challenges in Decreasing Urban Emissions While CURB does present a promising tool for urban climate action, its success is heavily contingent upon the accuracy of data. For example, where traffic congestion, waste incineration, or seasonal fluctuations in the kind of emissions would require hyperlocal data to best be considered, many of these cities in India lack information on such fundamental factors as population density, streetlight utilization, and waste management. This is not an India-specific problem, however. CURB has been applied in cities across the world, such as in Buenos Aires, Johannesburg, and Shiraz. A 2022 study published in the International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology analyzed how CURB was applied in Shiraz, Iran, concluding that the residential sector contributed 60% of the city's greenhouse gas emissions while urban transport at 30%. However, like Indian cities' experience, the success of these emission reduction plans were highly dependent on the availability and accuracy of the data. Ambitious Targets, But Limited Guidance for Cities India has ambitious national and subnational reduction targets but rarely provides specific directives to cities. This leaves urban areas unable to set their own specific, actionable climate goals. As the WRI study suggests, one of the main reasons cities can't achieve their climate goals is that subnational action hasn't been integrated effectively into larger state and national strategies. With business as usual, it will see the emissions in the three cities going up to 1.5 to 2.7 folds by the year 2050, given at the base level of the current 2019. However, at a high-ambition scenario, it may see the cities reach a stage of reducing emissions up to 77% sectorally-specific mitigation measures. As such, WRI recommends scaling up this model for other cities in India to meet the aims of reduction at large scale. Framework for Sustainable Urban Growth The report concludes that while tools such as CURB do open doors into emission reduction, they themselves are not the solutions. Governance, policy, legislation, and law enforcement will all feature in determining the success of this mitigation strategy in cities. More importantly, the capacity-building frameworks must be put in place to enhance the ability of cities to effectively use tools such as CURB. The WRI India team recommends that governments and urban authorities increase the application of mitigation models for more cities in the country. This way, city-specific efforts are not only in tandem with national climate strategies but also at the front line of the global fight against climate change. Increases in data collection investments will complement strong technical infrastructure in the cities, through which cities will focus more effectively on the most effective climate strategies and execute them at the right time to support India's climate goals. Source: PTI