A new report launched at Climate Week NYC reveals that governments can trigger a global cascade of “positive tipping points” to cut carbon emissions and reduce clean technology costs by using regulatory mandates to shift investment away from fossil fuels. The research, conducted across more than 70 countries, shows that mandates with clear timelines are the most effective tool for making clean technologies cheaper than fossil fuel alternatives by as much as three years earlier than current projections. This shift could reduce emissions in the power, transport, and heating sectors by at least 75% by 2050. The report examined four key sectors: power, heating, light road transport, and heavy road transport. It found that mandates, such as phasing out coal power or requiring manufacturers to increase their share of zero-emission vehicles and heat pumps, would bring forward tipping points faster than subsidies or carbon taxes. These tipping points would trigger cascades, where progress in one sector accelerates changes in others.
For example, increased clean electricity use in transport can lower costs in heating and power systems. Lead authors Professor Tim Lenton and Dr. Femke Nijsse highlighted the urgency of this approach, noting that without triggering these positive tipping points, the world will miss the goals set by the Paris Agreement. Their research identifies “super-leverage points,” such as mandates for zero-emission cars and coal phaseouts, as having the greatest potential to create cascading positive impacts across multiple sectors. Simon Sharpe, co-author and director of S-Curve Economics, emphasized that coordinated global mandates would provide businesses, investors, and consumers with the certainty needed to accelerate clean technology adoption. The report also highlights global developments, such as the UK’s closure of its last coal-fired power station, which represent an important milestone in the country’s transition to clean energy. The findings provide a clear political path to lower the costs of clean technologies, accelerate the transition to renewable energy and meet climate goals. The report “Positive Waterfalls in Electricity, Transport and Heating” was created by the project Economy of Energy Innovation and System Transmission, a collaboration of experts from the UK, China, India and Brazil.