The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has warned that global sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production will stay well short of what is needed to support the aviation sector's long-term climate goals. This raises concerns about aviation decarbonization, net-zero emissions, renewable energy, e-SAF production, and airline sustainability efforts. According to IATA, worldwide SAF output is expected to reach about 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, making up only 0.8% of total aviation fuel consumption.

This shortage comes as airlines face mounting pressure to cut carbon emissions while also accommodating rising passenger demand. IATA estimates that the limited availability of SAF will cost airlines around $4.3 billion in 2026, due to the high cost of the fuel and limited production capacity. The organization pointed out that the disconnect between climate commitments and fuel availability continues to grow, raising doubts about the industry's ability to meet its goal of achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Industry Faces Growing Challenges

SAF is often seen as the best immediate option for reducing emissions from long-haul flights, where alternatives like battery-powered aircraft are not yet practical. However, production volumes are low and supply chains are fragmented, making widespread adoption difficult in the global aviation sector.

IATA Director General Willie Walsh stated that the industry had hoped for quicker progress in SAF development since airlines set their net-zero target five years ago. He noted that a lack of policy support and limited involvement from traditional energy producers have hindered growth in production capacity.

Walsh mentioned that even with rising concerns about energy security, climate change, and economic opportunities tied to renewable fuels, governments have not yet created the incentives needed to establish a commercially viable SAF market. He emphasized that the current development pace makes it harder for aviation to meet future fuel needs.

IATA Calls for Supply-Side Focus

The association is urging governments to focus on expanding production capacity before setting fuel blending mandates and consumption targets. IATA believes that increasing renewable energy generation, improving access to fuel infrastructure, and providing long-term investment certainty are crucial to scaling the SAF market.

The organization also supports establishing a globally harmonized market framework, which would include common sustainability standards and a book-and-claim system. This system would let airlines buy SAF credits no matter where the fuel is physically produced or consumed, improving market efficiency and supporting investment.

Industry leaders argue that demand mandates alone cannot produce the necessary growth. Without sufficient incentives, infrastructure investment, and reliable feedstock supplies, SAF risks becoming a costly compliance requirement instead of an effective way to cut emissions.

E-SAF Capacity Falls Well Short of Targets

IATA has expressed particular concerns regarding the future availability of electro-sustainable aviation fuel, or e-SAF. Made using renewable electricity, green hydrogen, water, and captured carbon dioxide, e-SAF is seen as a potentially scalable long-term solution since it does not rely on biomass or waste-based feedstocks.

However, the technology is still in the early stages of commercial deployment. The European Union and the United Kingdom have set mandates for around 0.6 million tonnes of e-SAF production by 2030. Yet, IATA estimates that current global operating and under-construction capacity is only about 0.02 million tonnes.

The association pointed out that only one commercial e-SAF production facility is currently in operation worldwide. To meet the mandated targets, around 20 large-scale refineries must be developed and brought online in the next few years.

Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist, criticized European policymakers for their approach. She argued that imposing production mandates without sufficient renewable energy supplies and manufacturing capacity could lead to higher costs with limited emissions reductions.

According to Thomsen, a more effective strategy would focus on expanding renewable electricity generation and lowering energy costs before enforcing binding production requirements.

Passengers Continue to Support Climate Action

Despite worries about fuel availability, public support for aviation decarbonization remains strong. IATA’s passenger survey from April 2026 revealed that nearly 89% of respondents believe the aviation industry should continue reducing emissions, even if governments pull back on climate policies.

Most travelers prefer making air travel more sustainable rather than limiting flying altogether. About 66% of passengers said they would be willing to pay more to offset emissions, while nearly 88% expect ticket prices to rise as airlines invest in sustainability initiatives.

Many respondents favored practical emissions reduction efforts over environmental taxes. Investment in SAF and new emissions-cutting technologies received stronger backing than tax-based options.

Delivery Will Determine Future Progress

IATA stated that the aviation sector is in a crucial phase where climate ambitions must align with industrial development and policy action. While airlines keep making public commitments and passengers increasingly support sustainability efforts, fuel production is lagging far behind what is necessary.

The organization emphasized that achieving meaningful progress will require coordinated efforts to increase renewable energy, build production infrastructure, attract investment, and create consistent international regulations. Without these steps, SAF shortages could hike costs, hinder emissions reductions, and make global climate targets harder to reach.