The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts India will receive above average rainfall this July, exceeding 106% of the long-term average. Most of the country can expect normal to above normal rainfall, with a few exceptions. Parts of the northeast, northwest, east, and southeast peninsula may see below normal rainfall.
Temperature Variations Expected
Minimum temperatures are expected to be above normal across much of India. However, some northwestern and central regions, along with pockets in the southeastern peninsula, might experience normal or even below normal lows. Highs are forecast to be normal to below normal in many northwestern and southern peninsular regions (excluding the west coast). Conversely, central, eastern, and northeastern India, along with the west coast, can expect above normal highs.
Ocean Conditions and Forecast
Current observations show neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the Pacific Ocean, with warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the west and central regions, and cooler than average temperatures in the east. The Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) suggests La Nina conditions may develop later in the monsoon season.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral and is expected to remain that way throughout the monsoon season according to climate models.
The IMD plans to release updated forecasts for the second half of the monsoon season (August and September) and for August itself towards the end of July.