“India is fully committed to building a cleaner, greener planet,” said Prime Minister Narendra Modi while reiterating India’s commitment to tackling climate change and the emergence of green hydrogen as a promising addition to the world’s energy landscape.
On 11 September, while inaugurating the second edition of the International Conference on Green Hydrogen (ICGH-2024), he said, “Green hydrogen is one such breakthrough, with the potential to decarbonise hard-to-electrify sectors like refineries, fertilisers, steel, and heavy-duty transportation.”
Modi emphasised India’s leadership in renewable energy development and noted that India’s non-fossil fuel capacity has increased nearly 300 per cent over the last decade, and our solar energy capacity has seen an astounding 3000 per cent growth in the same period.
The PM claimed that India was the first among G20 nations to meet Paris Agreement commitments on green energy, well ahead of schedule. He stated, “We aim to position India as a global hub for the production, utilisation, and export of green hydrogen.” The National Green Hydrogen Mission, launched in 2023 aims to drive innovation, build infrastructure, stimulate industry growth, and attract investment in the green hydrogen sector.
In its latest report, the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) estimates that India will need a solar capacity of over 5,600 GW and a wind capacity of 1,800 GW to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070 to fulfill its sustainability goals. The green hydrogen demand in sectors such as fertiliser, refinery, steel, and transportation is expected to reach 30 million tonne per annum (MTPA) by 2050.
Notably, India has committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2070. Renewable energy (RE), including solar and wind power, and green hydrogen, are expected to play a pivotal role in achieving this target. India also has nearer-term goals of achieving a 50 per cent nonfossil fuel share in power generation capacity and deploying 500 GW of non-fossil power capacity by 2030.
India has set out to do the near impossible, but, will it be successful in providing energy access to millions of people, cleaning up one of the world’s largest energy systems and becoming a green industrial powerhouse?
Well, CEEW’s study “Unlocking India’s RE and Green Hydrogen Potential: An Assessment of Land, Water, and Climate Nexus”, highlighted that deployment beyond 1,500 GW could face critical challenges as multiple constraints intensify, narrowing the runway to reach the net-zero target. RE, including solar, wind, and green hydrogen, is crucial to realise India’s climate goals, but scaling up these technologies will require strategic land use, improved water management, and resilient power grid infrastructure.
“While our RE potential is vast, the road to net zero is fraught with challenges. From land conflicts and population density to the unpredictable but undeniable impact of climate change, every step forward will demand resilience and innovation. The scale of the task ahead is monumental, yet it is precisely this challenge that will define India’s legacy as a trailblazer for the Global South—a country that charts a low-carbon pathway to prosperity against all odds,” said Dr Arunabha Ghosh, Chief Executive Officer (CEO), CEEW.
Difficult Road Ahead?
In India, large-scale RE and green hydrogen development entails challenges related to land and water access. While RE deployment depends on land availability, green hydrogen relies on water resources. These constraints hinder the full realisation of RE generation and green hydrogen production potential. Solar power, a major renewable source, requires extensive land resources.
The current distribution of land use, as well as potential changes therein will determine whether sufficient land is available for widespread RE deployment. Additionally, the location of the available land is crucial, as end users prefer to deploy RE sources locally rather than transmitting power over long distances, according to the report.
At ICGH-2024, Hardeep S Puri, Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas, emphasised the ambitious targets set by India’s National Green Hydrogen Mission. He stated that India’s commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2070 involves a multifaceted approach, including a significant focus on green hydrogen.
Puri mentioned, “Our goal of producing 5 million metric tonne of green hydrogen by 2030 is a critical step in decarbonizing our economy. This will require an investment of USD 100 billion and the development of 125 gigawatts of new renewable energy capacity.”
Moreover, green hydrogen production requires access to water resources, known as uncommitted water, beyond what is already committed to the agricultural, industrial, domestic, and other sectors. The cost of land and availability of water directly influence the levelised cost of power and hydrogen. Therefore, to meet its net-zero targets, India needs to evaluate the overall potential for RE and green hydrogen and understand the challenges associated with realising this potential.
“Land and water are critical resources for scaling up RE and green hydrogen in India. Prevention of desertification and innovative solutions to address land availability, such as agro-voltaics in horticulture and rooftop solar in dense Indian cities, will be essential. Moreover, as RE projects move into areas with higher climate risks, insurance companies could increasingly hesitate to provide coverage. Involving all stakeholders in the early stage of renewable project development and addressing climate risks will help ensure projects are commercially viable in the long run,” said Hemant Mallya, Fellow, CEEW.
Generating Electricity And Humongous Cost
Amid a diverse landscape, communities and lifestyles across the nation, land and water requirements for green hydrogen projects will have operational and social implications in India. Although it has a large RE potential, the cost of power generation will significantly influence how much of it is eventually exploited. RE and green hydrogen have to compete with fossil fuels for widespread acceptance and minimal impact on economic growth. In this analysis, we used land costs and the RE PLF as variables to determine variations in the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) across the country.
Large solar potential exists in Rajasthan (6464 GW), Madhya Pradesh (2978 GW), and Maharashtra (2409 GW) at LCOEs lower than Rs 2.8 kilowatt-hour (kwh). Ladakh has a solar potential of ~625 GW at an LCOE lower than Rs 2.5 kWh. However, unlocking this potential would be challenging due to the difficult terrain and a lack of power evacuation infrastructure.
Karnataka (293 GW), Gujarat (212 GW), and Maharashtra (184 GW) have the largest wind potential in India at an LCOE lower than INR 3.25 per kwh. Tamil Nadu has a significantly lower cost of generation than in other states due to a high wind PLF, with a potential of 50 GW at an LCOE lower than Rs 2.65 per kWh.
Interestingly, the report stated that only 41 per cent of solar potential is located in areas that have historically not experienced any land conflicts.
Challenges In National RE And Net-zero Targets
The significant RE potential in the country is limited by several constraints. Each location in the country has a different combination of constraints. To achieve net-zero emissions in India by 2070, it may be necessary to establish RE capacity of up to 7,000 GW. Multiple combinations of constraints need to be considered while establishing this generation capacity.
As RE capacity expands, challenges arise. Between 60-300 GW, intermittency increases slightly, with locations experiencing two months of low generation, and existing conflict zones must be used. From 300-750 GW, a trade-off emerges between higher land prices (Ra 8-16 lakhs/acre) and population density (250-400 people/km²), accompanied by increased climate risk (0.2-0.4) and conflicts.
Beyond 750 GW, RE deployment requires areas prone to earthquakes or high seasonality, with generation lower than one standard deviation from the median for three months.
For 1,500-3,000 GW, high population density areas (400-750 people/km²) must be accessed, potentially in high-conflict zones. Above 3,000 GW, challenges intensify across all constraints, including land price, population density, and conflicts, with highly earthquake-prone zones and high climate risks emerging beyond 5,000 GW.
What About India’s Green Hydrogen Production?
Land price poses a challenge for optimal WSH locations, impacting the levelised cost of hydrogen (LCOH). Hybrid locations face solar PLF variations, with at least three months of generation below one standard deviation from the median, but compensating wind PLF above 30 per cent helps mitigate this.
To achieve 1.5 MTPA, land with up to 400 people/km² population density may be needed, increasing to 750 people/km² for 1.5-8.5 MTPA. However, this range also sees decreasing internal uncommitted water (1,500 mcm) and increasing land conflicts (4-6).
Beyond 8.5 MTPA, up to nine conflicts per district and high land prices (Rs 23 lakh/acre) must be considered. Closer to 30 MTPA, projects must be developed in high-risk earthquake zones, with internal uncommitted water decreasing to 750 mcm, still not a concern.
CEEW study added that the large-scale deployment of RE for power or green hydrogen will also require a significant amount of land. This could be anywhere between 5.54 and 6.31 per cent of India’s landmass for RE power and 2.45 per cent for green hydrogen production. However, the utilisation of rooftop solar and agro-voltaics can, to some extent, mitigate the land usage issue. Furthermore, we expect photovoltaic (PV) panel efficiency to improve in the future, resulting in lower land requirements.
The Green hydrogen electrolyzer market is projected to reach USD180 billion in key Asian markets by 2050 with India among the countries set to drive the growth, according to the report High-level Policy Commission on Getting Asia to Net Zero by the Asia Society Policy Institute. India’s green hydrogen market is set to reach USD 78 billion by 2050, up from USD 4 billion in 2030, as per the study to reach USD 180 billion by 2050 for key industrial applications.
Meanwhile, in August this year, Union Minister of State for Science and Technology, Jitendra Singh highlighted the Green Hydrogen Mission as a cornerstone of India’s strategy to decarbonise heavy industries, transportation, and power generation. Speaking at a bilateral meeting on US-India Civil Nuclear Commerce, he said, “India to enhance global climate goals through green hydrogen mission and SMR collaborations.”