A study from Imperial College London’s Department of Earth Science and Engineering emphasizes the need to set realistic goals for carbon capture and storage (CCS) efforts. Researchers have developed new models to assess how quickly carbon storage systems can be developed, considering geological, technical, and economic constraints. The study, published in *Nature Communications*, indicates that while reducing CO2 emissions on a large scale is technically possible, the rate and regions where this can be achieved may differ significantly from current projections, such as those from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The research suggests that storing between six to 16 gigatonnes of CO2 per year is technically feasible but comes with high uncertainty due to the lack of existing governmental plans or international agreements to support such a large-scale effort. Dr. Samuel Krevor, a co-author of the study, notes that five gigatonnes of CO2 per year would still be a significant contribution to mitigating climate change. The study’s models provide tools to update current projections with more realistic goals. The analysis found that integrated assessment models (IAMs) used by the IPCC, which combine various data sources to predict the impact of carbon storage methods on the climate and economy, often overestimate the potential for underground CO2 storage. Specifically, the study suggests that projections for countries like China, Indonesia, and South Korea are based on unrealistic deployment rates, making the existing projections unreliable. Professor Christopher Jackson, a co-author, pointed out that while IAMs are essential for informing climate policy, some assumptions about the storage capacity of CO2 are not realistic. The team suggests a more realistic global benchmark for underground CO2 storage is between five to six gigatonnes per year by 2050. This estimate is based on growth patterns seen in industries such as mining and renewable energy, which provide a solid basis for scaling up carbon storage technologies. The study is the first to use plant samples from industries based on CO2 storage, said Dr. Crore, and provides a more efficient way to predict scalability and set achievable targets. The new model can be a useful tool for decision makers to develop climate strategies.