Climate change is drastically reshaping Pacific Island nations, such as Tuvalu and Kiribati, and Fiji – sea levels are predicted to rise by at least 15 centimeters or 6 inches in the next 30 years, said NASA’s sea level change science team. These sea levels are expected to rise regardless of further changes in greenhouse gas emissions. Analysis was requested by Pacific Island countries and coordinated with U.S. Department of State, which endeavours to help such flood-prone areas prepare for worse storms.
The NASA sea level team has constructed high-resolution maps that reveal where, by the 2050s, higher levels of high-tide flooding will be more frequent. Published in September 2024, the maps take account of a range of emissions scenariosall the way to the worst casein order to provide critical considerations for mitigation planning. “Sea level will continue to rise for hundreds of years and flood increasingly often,” said Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer from NASA’s Earth Science Division, adding emphasis to the importance of the tool for coastal communities.
The report indicates that high tide flooding events will increase sharply; certain regions of Kiribati and Tuvalu will experience an increase by tenfold from what they experience presently about the annual number of flooding days with mid-century predictions, Tuvalu could experience 25 flood days annually compared to less than five it is reported to have for today, and parts of Kiribati may have some 65 flood days every year in the 2050s.
Tuvalu’s Youty leader, Grace Malie, was at pains to stress the new reality of climate change in her country, where most residents live along the coast and experience direct impacts from the rising sea levels. “We are living the reality of climate change,” she said, noting that increasing levels of seawater flooding were being felt from both the ocean and under the land caused by rising water tables.
The sea level rise will be differential from all nations of the Pacific due to local conditions because the coasts are differently structured and glacial meltwater is differently distributed. Scientists intend to refine the predictions by combining satellite data with ground-based measurements of sea level, though on-the-ground data is presently not available in sufficient quantity in this region.
As flooding risks escalate, Pacific Island countries are increasing efforts to adapt. Development is in early warning systems and mitigation strategies. For Tuvalu, climate change remains an environmental struggle for survival.