Now to date, a new study simply reported that the moist tropics actually comprise as much as 215 million hectares of degraded lands and which natural forest can readily recover itself. Such big, 100 times Mexico-sized area alone can be used to sequester a third of carbon dioxide that was emitted last century for within 30 years alongside rejuvenating biodiversity and clean-up water pollution. Reinvasion of the tropical forests by themselves, especially through the power of natural regeneration would come in strongly and decidedly.
The new research was co-led by Brooke Williams of Queensland University of Technology and Institute for Capacity Exchange in Environmental Decisions, and Hawthorne Beyer, the leading expert in geospatial sciences on Brazil-based startup Mombak; they developed a model using predictions to guide international restorative efforts by identifying exactly what areas are best suitable to natural forest recovery. UMBC associate professor Matthew Fagan contributed to the research, adding valuable data to the set through satellite imagery. “We found areas where tree cover naturally increased, and then we remove human-planted areas using machine learning,” he explains. Fagan’s data tracked the regeneration between 2000 and 2012 and was confirmed as persistent until at least 2015.
The worldwide data aggregation of the research considered the quality of soil, slope, population density, and proximity to cities and existing healthy forests. The researchers concluded that regrowth potential was highest close to dense forests with a rich carbon content in soil. According to Fagan, the presence of nearby forests is important because they provide a variety of seeds to support diverse regrowth.
An important fruit of this huge international partnership is a digital map of the tropical regions, where each pixel corresponds to 30 by 30 square meters and measures regrowth potential. Fagan hopes this product will give local communities a political voice to demand restoration tailored to their needs. “Our goal is that this is used democratically,” says Fagan, who argues that locals should be involved in the determination of where and how restoration will be carried out.
However, not all identified lands are suitable for reforestation. Many are currently being used as ranching, agriculture lands or prime real estate located near urban centers. Nonetheless, a large percentage of this land is comprised of degraded pastures or old logging sites that could easily be restored with minimal loss in economic activities. As Fagan points out, such efforts would be rewarding, for instance: “Restoring rainforests would significantly improve water quality, biodiversity, soil health, and carbon sequestration.”. The challenge is to decide where restoration can be accomplished most efficiently.