Rising Devastation Linked to More Frequent Consecutive El Niños

Consecutive El Niños More Common and Longer, Scientists Discover

A recent study has indicated that consecutive El Niños are becoming more the norm with increasingly more powerful interruptions to the world in general. El Niño, an atmospheric phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, has been known for centuries to alter the world's weather patterns since time immemorial. Its fluctuation of alternating hot and cold spells—El Niño and La Niña—can potentially unleash extreme climatic regimes like floods, droughts, and storms that impact millions of people globally.

The effect of El Niño extends far and wide and penetrates realms as varied as agriculture, fisheries, water resources, and even the health of human beings. There are certain instances such as that of the 1997–98 El Niño and the case of the 2015–16 El Niño which are characteristic of instances where such instances lead to a large amount of economic as well as ecological loss and by figures running into the millions. The periodic occurrence of El Niño occurring time and again at unpredictable intervals in climatology modifies their cycle to cold. But new research shows that they now persist longer and happen more frequently, and are thus more destructive to ecosystems and human societies.

Climate change is one of the primary causes. Over the last few decades, the Pacific Ocean thermocline, the area of water between warm surface water and cold deep water, has been becoming shallower, allowing the El Niño and La Niña phenomena to last longer. Global warming caused by human activities, i.e., the greenhouse gases emitted when fossil fuels are combusted, has strengthened this natural phenomenon. The extra heat retained in the atmosphere and oceans is powering these natural cycles and increasing the chances of multi-year events of El Niño.

The implications of persistent multi-year El Niño events are vast. Prolonged drought, more severe heatwaves, and fiercer wildfires are a few of the short-term impacts that might annihilate agriculture and bring in frequent episodes of severe weather such as hurricanes. Urban coast cities, which are already affected by rising sea levels, may face more severe storm surges, as well. More stress in agriculture production systems, fisheries, and water will also increase, which will affect world food security and economic stability.

In such a scenario, the need to cut carbon emissions and develop climate resilience is more than ever before. While natural causes of El Niño occurrences cannot be undone, human-induced speeding up of the occurrences is an indicator of the need to combat climate change. Increasing global efforts for the emissions reductions, danger reduction to disaster, and improved structures will be capable of avoiding some of the devastating consequences which can be estimated on shorter-time horizons. Conclusion

As a result and all things being said, prolonged and extended El Niño events are becoming larger and more intense as a function of anthropogenically induced climatic change.
Not only are the events causing disruption to the climate, but new ones are being added to already existing issues like food security, water, agriculture, and infrastructural resilience. It is urging an imperative that prevents the already brewing crisis that addresses carbon cuts and adaptation to the certainty of climate shocks in the future. This study is an eye opener that extended El Niño periods will be a persistent headache to the world community for decades to come. 

SOURCE:PHYSS.ORG