A year on from when world leaders at COP28 set ambitious aims to triple the global renewable energy capacity by 2030, new Ember analysis reveals that national renewable energy goals are still quite far from the mark. The report Tuesday, in its third iteration, evaluated the renewable capacity targets of 96 countries and the European Union as a bloc. It found that global commitments collectively aim for just a doubling of renewable capacity by 2030, pointing to the fact that significant progress has to be made to reach the tripling goal of 11,000 gigawatts (GW) globally.
Current National Renewable Targets Insufficient
Its findings show that, while COP28 agreed to raise the global ambition of tripling renewable capacity by 2030, most national targets had not been revised to reflect that aspiration. Only eight countries scaled up their renewables targets over the course of the year, collectively increasing the total global count by a mere 4 GW, Ember describes it as far from sufficient.
The total of all national 2030 renewable targets from the countries evaluated currently stands at 7,242 GW. That had been 7,238 GW as of the end of 2023. Such a gap places the COP28 target a long way off – 3,758 GW still have to be added by 2030 to realize the targeted triple-value increase.
As if that was not enough, the report takes a leaning to a glaring aspect of contradiction between global aspirations and national action: The fact that the targets set now will only see a doubling of renewable energy capacity compared to the 2022 baseline. This shall put quite a challenge to confine global warming within the 1.5-degree Celsius limit, an aim calling for a relatively fast and widespread shift in such sources of renewable energies around the world.
Regional differences for renewable capacity
The Ember report has a regional analysis that shows very large gaps between current targets and the contributions required by regions throughout the world to help meet the goal of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030. Though each region has different starting points and levels of required growth, all regions, according to the report, are not doing enough to reach the ambition required by the global goal.
Already, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Sub-Saharan Africa, Eurasia, Latin America, and Asia have set targets that collectively fall short of what is required to put their respective regions on a path to a 1.5-degree scenario. The insufficient gap only serves to highlight the urgency to step up efforts and support in increasing renewable capacity, but more so in emerging markets, whose development could have the most significant influence on clean energy.
Solar and Wind Markets Look Promising, Even if Government Targets Are Lagging
The national target deficit has not dampened the growth of the renewable energy market. Solar market growth is particularly robust. Solar power installations are expected to add 593 GW globally in 2024, exceeding market expectations, up by 29 percent from 2023, and up by 87 percent from 2022. The International Energy Agency estimates that this growth will take the global solar capacity to 6,640 GW by 2030 to surpass the 6,101 GW tripling goal. National targets for solar are very low at 3,011 GW and way below market potential.
This means that wind energy will see more global capacity reaching 2,100 GW by 2030; this will be along the lines of national targets now but still lower than levels required to meet the tripling ambition. This lack of meeting ambition suggests that even though renewable markets are growing continuously, national commitments remain rather conservative and need to be boosted to match market potential and technological advancement.
COP29 Focus on Energy Storage to Support Renewable Growth
While the renewable capacity targets are very much on the agenda, the COP29 has also mooted a plan to up global energy storage capacity sixfold from the current 2030 levels in order to support the growth of renewable energy. This would call for energy storage to reach 1,500 GW by 2030, and has already received the nod of the G7 group earlier this year.
However, as Ember analyzes, of the 96 countries considered, only 30 have set national targets for storage, which collectively only amount to 284 GW. This is even less than the target set by these countries and should increase according to the growth of solar and wind sources. Indeed, energy storage will increasingly be necessary to balance and maintain supply as the scale of renewables increases .
Opportunities to Close the Gap at COP29 and Through NDC Updates
All this precedes the COP29 to be held in Azerbaijan’s Baku and the new NDCs in 2025, which experts argue present a window of opportunity for countries to align their targets with the COP28 goal and thus bridge the gap between current ambitions and what is necessary for a sustainable climate future. The Ember report further argues that these factors-fast growth in renewables, falling prices, and advances in technology-should fortify governments into more aggressive targets.
This report further emphasizes that despite bright prospects from renewable markets, the failure to meet renewable capacity targets puts it at the heart of the lack of ambition by governments. As Electricity Analyst at Ember, Katye Altieri concludes: “renewable markets are booming but governments’ ambitions have not.” At a time when prices continue to fall and renewables becoming ever more competitive, nations are expected to reassess themselves to further raise their commitments on renewable capacity and their corresponding storage targets.
Conclusion
However, Ember’s report presents evidence of how the gap between renewable market growth and national target setting is one that challenges global climate goals. Though renewable energy markets are growing much faster than anybody actually thought, national governments ought to increase their targets to reflect the set goal in COP28.
Therefore, the tripling process will thus call for a concerted global effort to help and invest in renewable technologies and the energy storage infrastructure to guarantee a reliable energy supply. As COP29 takes place, preparing countries for updating their NDCs in 2025, now is the final hour to escalate governments’ renewable capacity targets to keep the world on track to limit global warming and avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
Source: Ember Global Renewable Energy Targets Report