Study Warns 1.5°C Warming Threatens Polar Ice Sheets, Accelerating Sea-Level Rise

A recent scientific review indicates that limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels may not be sufficient to prevent the destabilization of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. This destabilization could lead to significant sea-level rise, posing risks to coastal communities worldwide.

The study, published in Communications Earth & Environment, synthesizes decades of paleoclimate data, satellite observations, and climate model projections. Researchers from Durham University, the University of Bristol, the University of Wisconsin–Madison, and the University of Massachusetts Amherst contributed to this comprehensive analysis.

Findings suggest that the current warming of approximately 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels, if sustained, could trigger ice sheet instabilities. Such instabilities may result in sea-level rise exceeding 10 millimeters per year, challenging global adaptation efforts. 

Historical data from the Last Interglacial period, around 129,000 years ago, reveal that global temperatures only 0.5°C–1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels led to sea levels 6 to 9 meters higher. This suggests that ice sheets can respond non-linearly to temperature increases, with small changes potentially causing significant ice loss. 

Current observations indicate that the rate of ice loss from Greenland and West Antarctica has reached 372 gigatonnes per year. Greenland's contribution alone is a significant factor in global sea-level trends. 

The study emphasizes that even the 1.5°C target set by the Paris Climate Agreement may be too high to prevent irreversible ice loss. Researchers advocate for more ambitious climate targets, potentially closer to a 1.0°C limit, to mitigate the risks associated with sea-level rise.

Conclusion

The research underscores the urgency of re-evaluating global climate targets to prevent the long-term destabilization of polar ice sheets. Without more stringent measures, significant sea-level rise could become unavoidable, impacting millions in coastal regions.

Source and Credits

This article is based on the study published in Communications Earth & Environment and reported by ESG