Antarctica holds the largest ice mass on Earth. Thwaites, one of the biggest glaciers, covers 192,000 square kilometers. Like other glaciers, Thwaites is melting. A research team has created a map showing how much it melts each year, and the results are concerning, as it is melting and breaking apart faster than expected. Greenhouse gases are cited as a major cause. The future of Antarctica’s glaciers after 2100 remains uncertain, according to ice-sheet models in the journal Earth’s Future.
Researchers combined data from 16 ice-sheet models, revealing that ice loss from Antarctica will increase gradually throughout the 21st century, even with current carbon emissions.
A Dartmouth-led study by over 50 climate scientists provides the first clear projection of how carbon emissions may lead to the loss of a large portion of Antarctica’s ice sheet over the next 300 years. It is said that under current emissions, ice in most of Antarctica’s western basins starts retreating due to warm water flowing beneath the glaciers. This melting could raise global sea levels by up to 5.5 feet by 2200. Some of the team’s simulations predict a near-total collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet by 2300.
Hélène Seroussi, the study’s first author and an associate professor at Thayer School of Engineering, said that most of the policymakers and stakeholders focused on what will happen up to 2100, however, There are very few studies beyond that.
“Our study provides the longer-term projections that have been lacking,” she says. “The results show that beyond 2100, the long-term impact for the regions most susceptible to sea-level rise become amplified”, Seroussi added.
The study could lead to further collaborative models that scientists can use to understand and resolve disparities in projections for regions with significant modeling uncertainties, or for the Greenland ice sheet, Seroussi says. Research and computing resources can then be focused on investigating outcomes that those multiple models predict as most likely.