University Of Queensland Forecasts Climate Migration

A study at Queen’s University tackles one of the most pressing issues of our time: how many Australians will be forced to move due to climate change in the next 25 years recently. The research, led by Dr Ode Bernard from UQ’s School of Environment, aims to quantify the impact of natural disasters on population movements in Australia. Dr Bernard says current population projections in Australia, which rely on factors such as fertility, mortality and decline, do not take into account how people will respond to increased population growth. of the severity and frequency of natural disasters. Since 2009, around 23,000 Australians over the age of 15 have been displaced each year due to house damage caused by floods, bushfires and cyclones. As climate change worsens and the population increases, this number is expected to increase.

Despite the severe social consequences of climate change, these factors are missing from existing models that project the size, composition, and distribution of the Australian population. Dr. Bernard emphasizes the urgent need for a new climate-migration forecasting system, based on robust data, to help governments and communities prepare for these disruptions. Dr. Bernard, a recipient of the prestigious UQ Research and Innovation Week Foundation Research Excellence Award, will use this recognition to further her research, which combines datasets from over 10 sources. The project will look at historical responses to disasters, future climate scenarios, and current population dynamics to create a comprehensive picture of disaster-induced migration in Australia. With significant uncertainty surrounding all three aspects, the model will be dynamic, adjusting to new inputs as conditions change. The complexity of this task requires a collaborative approach with experts in demography, economics and data science working closely with climate scientists. The ultimate goal is to provide clear and actionable insights for governments at all levels, including industries such as insurance and real estate that are affected by significant changes in population. This new migration forecast framework is expected to be completed by mid-2025, just in time for Brisbane to host the World Population Conference. This ground-breaking project promises to provide important guidance for disaster preparedness and infrastructure planning as Australia faces the growing challenges of climate change.

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