Warm Weather Threatens India’s Wheat Crop Before Harvest: Is the Agriculture Sector at Risk?

India is reeling under a rare spell of warm weather and short rainfall in February, which is concerning wheat yields ahead of the harvesting season. The northwestern region of the country has received significantly below-average rainfall—about 80% less than average—since the beginning of 2025. January 2025 was also the third-warmest January India has recorded since 1901. These climatic conditions have put India's wheat crop at risk, which could prompt the government to reconsider its import tariff on wheat.
Climate scientists issue warnings that ongoing warm and dry weather in the next month may further decrease wheat production. Donald Keeney, a senior meteorologist at Maxar Technologies, cited that the weather pattern is already impacting the crops and that additional temperature rises may further aggravate the condition. The combination of increasing temperatures and volatile rain patterns is increasingly threatening India's farming industry.

Climate change is proving to be a major driver of these weather extremes. In May 2023, a report by the Reserve Bank of India's Department of Economic and Policy Research cautioned that increasing global temperatures and changing monsoon patterns may have a substantial impact on the Indian economy. If global temperatures increase by 2°C rather than the goal of 1.5°C, India, along with Brazil and Mexico, may experience a steep reduction in economic growth.

Climate change has also been recognized by the World Bank as a major economic risk for India. In 2022, it estimated that the country may stand to lose up to 2.8% of its GDP by 2050 as a result of rising temperatures and unreliable monsoon patterns. Severe heat waves could also lead to large-scale loss of employment, and India is poised to account for 34 million of the 80 million lost jobs globally due to reduced productivity as a result of heat by 2030.

The impact of extreme weather is most disconcerting to India's farming industry, which contributes about 16% to the country's GDP. Higher temperatures reduce farm output, affect the quality of the crop, and reduce the income of farmers, thereby affecting the economy in general. Reduction in wheat yield could lead to higher food prices, inflation rates, and even food security problems.

Given that wheat is one of the staples of India, declining production would force the government to reassess its wheat import policy. India has imposed steep import duties on wheat in the recent past to protect local farmers, but with production in danger, lowering the import duties might be warranted to support domestic supply and prices.

The larger challenge is adapting to climate change. Farmers need to be assisted in the form of embracing agriculture that is climate-resilient by improving irrigation facilities, drought-resistant crops, and efficient water management practices. Government subsidies, technology assistance, and infrastructure creation will be crucial in enabling farmers to counter the impacts of extreme weather.

Conclusion

Wheat crop in India is gravely jeopardized by unusually hot weather and reduced rainfall. If these trends continue, it could lead to lower yields, economic loss, and even food security concerns. The impact of climate change on agriculture cannot be overlooked, and immediate action must be taken to allow farmers to adapt to the changing climate. The government needs to focus on longer-term strategies including better water management, sustainable farming practices, and climate change policy to protect the agriculture industry from further damage.