Heat Extremes May Persist in Southern Africa Post Net Zero

As global objectives aim to achieve Net Zero carbon emissions by the year 2050, recent climate model studies suggest that southern Africa will go on experiencing severe heat beyond that period. Despite reduced emissions globally, southern Africa can be a hotbed of climate vulnerability despite this global phenomenon due to regional conditions and unevenly forecasted rainfall.

Over the last seventy years, greenhouse gases have increased the number and severity of heatwaves worldwide. These heat extremes result in damage to infrastructure, the environment, and human health. The global Net Zero commitment—where emissions are balanced by absorption via natural or technical sinks—arrests the overall warming rate. But climate relief will not be equally felt around the world.

Sophisticated climate models used by researchers suggest that although most land surfaces can anticipate shedding their heat extremes upon achievement of Net Zero, southern Africa's picture is still inconclusive. This difference is largely explained due to uncertainty when attempting to predict future rainfall. If soil moisture is improved as a consequence of increased rainfall, land can shed heat even better by means of evaporation. Otherwise, extended dryness would only increase surface temperatures.

The climate models used in the analysis differed in their simulation of surface rainfall and evaporation. These differences are due to the methodology followed by the various international climate bureaux in developing their models and assumptions applied physically. Therefore, the southern African projections remain uncertain and highly variable, depending on the model.

Southern Africa already experienced a substantial increase in temperature since the 1950s. Events like the 2018 Cape Town water crisis, also referred to as "Day Zero," indicate the vulnerability of the region to prolonged heat and drought. Even with a successful transition on a global scale towards Net Zero, such events could still happen—or even increase in severity—without intense regional adaptation policies.

Regional climate response must be understood. Hotspots like southern Africa require targeted solutions, since surface conditions, rainfall patterns, and vegetation cover each have an interplay effect on exposure to heat. In the absence of these targeted interventions, Net Zero may just not be enough to provide longer-term relief.

On the policy front, the uncertain fate of regions like southern Africa preserves the need for simultaneous strategies. Reducing emissions must be joined with climate adaptation, especially in those places exposed with limited resources. Regional scenario planning, upgraded meteorological infrastructure, and community resilience programs can all reduce the impact of ongoing climate stress.

Net Zero is essential to long-term global climatic stabilisation, but it is no silver bullet for everywhere. Climate response in Southern Africa illuminates the complexity of regional impacts of global warming. The region's future relies upon global action to lower emissions as well as regional ability to adapt to changing circumstances, anticipate uncertain outcomes, and create systems resilient to a warmer world.

Source: DownToEarth