Scotland's Net-Zero Delay: Investigating the 20MT Gap

Scotland's Net-Zero Goals Under Pressure For Failing 2045 Timeline
Scotland is facing growing pressure to realize its own target date of 2045 net-zero, media reports have claimed. Scotland's administration had been taking steps in pursuit of a target of 2045 for being net-zero of all greenhouses gases. Several internal papers challenged the target's achievability, the country risking loss up to the point of 20 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e).

In its climate change strategy, Scotland had pledged to make greenhouse gas emissions net-zero by 2045. Previous first ministers such as Nicola Sturgeon and current First Minister, John Swinney, have all pledged to follow suit with the emphasis being placed on the nation being at the vanguard of the world in the battle against climate change. But most recent assessment of the Scottish performance shows it is even more challenging to attain the goal with even more intense investment levels never before faced.

Scotland produced 41.6 MtCO2e in 2021. The most recent estimates suggest that the nation will be able to cut emissions by only half by the end of the two decades. The cut rate is below what is needed to achieve the 2045 target, and thus reaching net-zero emissions by the year is extremely unlikely.

The report points out some of the challenges towards achieving the progress required which include a shortage of finance and delayed enactment of some of the crucial climate bills. Attainment of the net-zero goal to a very large extent relies on the amount of finance being injected in activities like afforestation, restoration of peatlands, reform of agriculture, and technology like test carbon capture technologies whose development might be attained at costly prices.

One of the biggest obstacles to meeting the goal is the application of expensive and unproven technology for CO2 capture from the air. Technologies under development for carbon capture and storage have much to offer as offsetting measures. They are still very expensive, however, and far from assured is their broad takeup.

Furthermore, the Scottish government has also been accused of missing a number of key milestones in their climate proposals. Scottish administrations in 2024 were also criticized for ditching a 75% reduction in carbon emissions by 2030 after the UK Climate Change Committee (CCC) discovered the target was "beyond what is credible." The target had been ditched after a string of misses, with Scotland missing eight of its twelve yearly targets. It has also fallen short of tree planting, peatland restoration, traveling miles lower, and low-carbon domestic heating.

Scotland's own climate plan has also been rendered complicated by Scotland's overall strategy to the UK climate plan. The UK, being a signatory to the Paris Agreement, has set national climate targets set in line with the global ambition of the agreement. But the UK and most nations missed the UN established deadline to file new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) outlining their 2035 climate plans. Just 11 of the 195 signatory nations of the Paris Agreement had filed their NDCs by February 10, leading to uncertainty on future international action against climate change.

Scotland's inability to meet its 2045 target is reflective of failures worldwide by nations in tackling the imperative of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. As rapid as the speed of international reaction to climate change has become over the past few years, the majority of nations have been unable to meet their pledge, including Scotland. Scotland's climate goals now hang in the balance. With previous delays in cutting emissions and growing pressure to hit future targets, the Scottish government is coming under mounting pressure to move more rapidly towards a 2045 net-zero emissions target. But without sufficient investment in new technologies and transformation, this target is growing ever further away.