Vietnam Sets Ambitious Power Goals With Nuclear Push

Vietnam is making significant progress to revamp its power generation infrastructure by 2030, with a view to raising its installed generation capacity to the level of between 183 and 236 gigawatts (GW). This is a huge jump from 80 GW capacity as of the end of 2023. The nation's new energy master plan marks a decisive shift away from dependence on coal and towards cleaner and greener power sources, such as solar, wind, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and for the first time in decades, nuclear power.

The shift is being spurred by an urgent need to address increasing electricity demand, a critical element in supporting its rapid industrialization and ensuring investor confidence. Power outages over the past few years have already spooked foreign investors, underscoring the urgency of the shift. In order to achieve this ambitious agenda, Vietnam will need a mind-boggling investment of $136.3 billion by 2030—a sum equal to more than a quarter of its estimated GDP for 2024.

In a dramatic change, the government has restarted its nuclear power programme, which was put on hold in 2016 for budgetary and international reasons in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear accident. Today, Vietnam intends to have its initial nuclear reactors up and running between 2030 and 2035 and supply up to 6.4 GW of power to the national grid. By 2050, the nuclear capacity will be as much as 14.4 GW. The government has also shown interest in small modular reactors (SMRs), which are seen as a cheaper and more scalable option compared to conventional large reactors, although technology is still being developed around the world.

Vietnam has begun negotiating with external partners to move its nuclear plans forward. Negotiations have taken place with nations such as Russia, Japan, South Korea, France, and the United States. Of these, Russia and Japan are now considered front-runners, but the government is not averse to bids from other countries that have advanced technology and competitive prices. On a recent visit, Korea Electric Power Corporation head indicated interest in participating in Vietnam's nuclear plans, highlighting increasing international interest.

The energy blueprint calls for drastic shifts in the nation's power mix. Solar power will provide between 25.3% and 31.1% of total capacity by 2030, from 23.8% in 2020. Onshore and nearshore wind power will also have a more prominent role, increasing to 14.2%-16.1% from close to zero in 2020. Nevertheless, despite Vietnam's original goal of reaching 6 GW of offshore wind power by 2030, no such units have been constructed so far. Nevertheless, the new plan is set to drive offshore wind capacity to 6–17 GW by the 2030–2035 period, showing a long-term commitment to exploiting this potential.

Vietnam's coal-fired power capacity, which previously dominated the grid, will decrease considerably under the new roadmap. By 2030, coal is expected to account for only 13.1% to 16.9% of the overall power mix, a drastic decline from nearly one-third in 2020. At the same time, LNG-fired power plants, which are not present in the mix now, will come to supply 9.5% to 12.3% of capacity. This is part of a larger trend throughout Southeast Asia, where cleaner-burning natural gas is increasingly viewed as an interim fuel as the region moves toward renewable energy.

In spite of the positive perspective, Vietnam is also confronted with some challenges. Among the concerns for investors is the recent government move to retroactively change preferential pricing structures for solar and wind power projects. The policy change has sparked doubts regarding regulatory stability and may curb investor enthusiasm unless there are transparent and consistent incentives.

In general, Vietnam's new power development plan demonstrates a firm commitment to diversifying its energy mix and balancing economic development with environmental sustainability. The integrated approach of the government—merging solar, wind, LNG, and nuclear—seeks not only to meet current electricity needs but also to establish a robust and future-proof energy system. As the world grapples with the shift towards clean energy, Vietnam's bold action represents a significant case study in reconciling development, sustainability, and energy security.