Global powers are over-estimating forest carbon sequestration potential in a manner which may hide the actual magnitude of fossil fuel emission reductions required, says new research by Climate Analytics. Australia and Brazil were picked out by the report as already making more than optimistic projections of land sinks of carbon in their 2035 climate plan. The practice can enable them to continue consuming growing quantities of fossil fuels while simultaneously appearing to maintain global climate obligations. Scientists note that it is not known how carbon sinks like forests would react in cases of future climate. While this, most national plans count on forests absorbing higher and higher levels of carbon dioxide too much without thinking about risk such as forest fires or natural sinks' ability decreasing with environment degradation. Australia's new climate plans call for a dependence on forests so enormous that it would essentially lower real cuts in emissions by 10%. Brazil's own targets to reduce emissions by 59% to 67% below 2005 levels by 2035 are also unclear on how much will be done through forest carbon sequestration. Climate Analytics cautions that these approaches can give a false signal of progress toward the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming target set in the Paris Agreement. Without stringent guidelines controlling how carbon accounting for land use and forestry is done, countries can take liberties with these assumptions to avoid more profound energy and industry reductions. This uncertainty around land sinks may translate into an unbalanced gap of up to three billion tonnes of carbon dioxide globally, which is comparable to the size of Europe's yearly emissions. UN climate officials have also identified gaps between national land accounting practices and scientific models previously, estimating the difference at around 15% of all global emissions. Harmonizing accounting standards is seen as essential to properly measure progress toward reaching net-zero on the planet and making sure that countries are not underestimating the scale of action needed to address climate change. The study urges that forest carbon sequestration is divorced from emission reductions in countries' plans in order to avert systemic overreporting of real climate change.
Agence France-Presse (AFP) | By Kelly Macnamara