Wildfire Smoke Caused 20,000 Premature Deaths and $200 Billion in Health Damages in 2017, Study Finds

A recent study by Carnegie Mellon University researchers finds that wildfire and prescribed burn smoke in the United States caused about 20,000 premature deaths and an estimated $200 billion in health-related damages in 2017. Although air pollution from most industrial and transportation sources has declined since the late 20th century, the rise in emissions from wildland fires has emerged as a new environmental and public health threat. The research, in Communications Earth & Environment, points out that racially marginalized and aging communities, particularly Native American and Black communities, were disproportionately impacted by fire smoke PM2.5 exposure.

An integrated assessment model was used by researchers to examine the effect of PM2.5 levels of fire smoke in all neighboring United States census tracts. These small particles have been known to cause serious health problems and are statistically associated with higher mortality. The study estimated that wildfire smoke alone was responsible for approximately half of the damages, all located largely in the western United States. The other half was prescribed burns, utilized primarily in the southeastern U.S. to lower wildfire risk but also adding to PM2.5 levels.

The research concluded that total fire smoke damages in 2017 accounted for approximately 17% of overall health damages due to emissions by all sources across the country. Almost 50% of the estimated premature mortalities were a result of smoke from wildfires, while the rest resulted from prescribed burn emissions. Importantly, exposure to smoke was strongly correlated with a range of social vulnerability indicators, such as income, race, and age. When pairing exposure levels with susceptibility to health damage, elderly citizens were the most severely affected group with 75% of all damages and only 16% of the population. For each age group, Native American and Black people experienced the highest per capita damages, indicating ongoing environmental disparities.

These observations emphasize the importance of targeted public health and environmental policy to prevent the damages of smoke from fire. A range of actions are suggested by the authors to assist vulnerable populations in better preparing for and responding to smoke incidents, from heightened real-time monitoring in at-risk areas to greater public engagement through community-based communication. Creating clean air havens through filtration systems in highly visible public areas—particularly senior centers in impoverished communities—is another suggested approach. Furthermore, pre-distribution of respiratory protective equipment such as N95 masks can be an additional step for individuals with lower access to clean indoor spaces, e.g., outdoor workers and homeless individuals.

The research also brings forth the wider implications of increasing wildfire activity and the necessity for a fair strategy to prescribed burning, which while useful in fuel load control is also producing toxic emissions. Policymakers must balance long-term advantages in preventing wildfires against short-term health impacts of more smoke exposure through prescribed burning. Absent intervention, the public health cost of fire smoke will keep on rising as climate change fuels more intense and frequent fire seasons.

Briefly, the study presents a general, data-based summary of the invisible wildland fire smoke costs in the United States. By estimating the premature deaths and economic impacts from PM2.5 exposure, the research provides significant findings to state, federal, and local governments willing to minimize environmental health inequities. As climate change and land use patterns increase wildfire hazard, it is necessary to tackle the underlying effects of smoke pollution in order to maintain public health and environmental justice.

Source & Credits:
Study: "Sensitivity analysis of the distribution of fire smoke damages by age group using differentiated relative risk and the value of a statistical life year" published in Communications Earth & Environment (2025). DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02100-y
Carried out by researchers at the Tepper School of Business of Carnegie Mellon University