Whether the avalanche results in a mass casualty disaster depends less on the hazard size and more on the degree of preparation, according to a newly published international study. Scientists state that proper governance, early warnings, and evacuation plans are crucial in minimizing fatalities in mountain regions under a growing climate threat.

The study, published in Communications Earth & Environment, analyzed the case of the 2021 Chamoli ice-rock avalanche in India and the 2025 Blatten avalanche in Switzerland. Even though the avalanches were alike in terms of their character, the consequences of these two natural disasters differed drastically – in the first case, over 200 people lost their lives, while the latter one caused little harm to lives, even though it buried most of the village.

Scientists explain the discrepancy by the fact that the Swiss authorities had already taken all necessary preparedness actions. Unstable areas were constantly monitored, and once the rising risk was observed, the villagers were promptly evacuated. 

In the case of Chamoli, scientists did not observe any corresponding operational monitoring or evacuation plan at all – warning signs were not translated into actions, and communities did not have any procedures.

The study argues that ice-rock avalanches should be treated as a governance challenge rather than only a natural hazard. Scientists note that glacier retreat, permafrost degradation, and extreme precipitation are making high-altitude slopes across the Himalaya increasingly unstable. These conditions are expected to increase the likelihood of large ice-rock avalanches.

According to the researchers, disaster management in many Himalayan regions remains focused on emergency response instead of preparedness. Existing hazard assessments often fail to account for rapidly changing cryospheric conditions and the speed at which these events can develop.

The recommendations include the development of an effective preparation through the integration of satellite and ground observations, definition of thresholds for an emergency, faster communication methods, the ability of local authorities to evacuate people, and community-level preparations.

According to the researchers, these actions will help decrease the number of victims from future mountain disasters. They claim that the investment in monitoring, planning, and preparation can be viewed as an efficient method to prevent the negative consequences of mountain instability.