Carbon Budget for 1.5°C Limit May Be Exhausted by 2028

The carbon budget to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is projected to be depleted by 2028, according to the 2024 Global Carbon Budget report. With greenhouse gas emissions rising 1.3% in 2023, the world faces a narrowing window to avoid severe climate impacts. India, a key emitter, must balance economic growth with urgent emissions cuts to align with Paris Agreement goals.

The Global Carbon Budget 2024, published by the Global Carbon Project, estimates that the remaining carbon budget for a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C is 200 gigatonnes of CO2, equivalent to five years of current emissions. In 2023, global emissions reached 40.9 gigatonnes, driven by fossil fuel use (36.8 gigatonnes) and land-use changes (4.1 gigatonnes). Coal emissions grew 1.1%, oil 1.5%, and gas 0.5%, with India and China accounting for significant increases.

India’s emissions rose 6.1% in 2023, reaching 3.7 gigatonnes, or 8.6% of the global total, making it the third-largest emitter after China (29.5%) and the U.S. (12.2%). Coal dominates India’s energy mix at 47%, with 70% of electricity from fossil fuels. Despite a 286% increase in renewable capacity over seven years, fossil fuel demand remains high due to rising energy needs, projected to grow 9% annually until 2028.

The Paris Agreement requires a 43% emissions cut by 2030 to meet the 1.5°C target. India’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) aim for 50% non-fossil power capacity by 2030 and a 45% reduction in emissions intensity. With 26.5% renewable capacity in 2025, India is on track to exceed its 2030 NDC but falls short of the 1.5°C pathway, needing a coal phase-down by 2030-35. The government’s ₹26,549 crore budget for renewables in 2025 supports solar, wind, and green hydrogen, but coal production hit record highs in 2024.

Challenges include grid integration of renewables, with curtailment losses due to outdated infrastructure. Battery storage, at 120 MWh in projects like Chhattisgarh’s 100 MW solar plant, is nascent but critical. The World Bank is aiding India’s storage market development, targeting 500 GW non-fossil capacity by 2030. Land acquisition and financing barriers, requiring 1.5 times the investment of advanced economies, hinder progress.

Extreme weather, driven by a 0.7°C temperature rise in India from 1901-2018, exacerbates the urgency. Heatwaves, erratic monsoons, and rising sea levels threaten 80% of India’s districts, costing 10% of GDP by 2070. Adaptation measures, like the Atal Bhujal Yojana for groundwater management, are vital, but funding for coastal resilience dropped 96% in 2025.

Conclusion

The 1.5°C carbon budget is set to run out by 2028, demanding immediate global and Indian action. While India advances renewables, coal reliance and grid challenges persist. Scaling storage, modernizing infrastructure, and enhancing adaptation are critical to meeting climate goals and averting economic losses.

Source: Outlook Business,