Monsoon Turns Deadly As Climate Crisis Intensifies

Every year, the Indian subcontinent prepares for the monsoon—a bane and a boon. During June to September, South Asia is dominated by torrential rains, delivering welcome respite from scorching heat, replenishing rivers, and fertilizing farmland. These monsoon rains are not just a climatic phenomenon but a culture in the region. But over the past few years, as the global temperature is rising, the monsoon has been becoming more and more unpredictable, heavy, and deadly, with disastrous effects on the lives of millions in the region.

The 2024 monsoon season was one of the most fatal of recent times. India alone had reported close to 1,300 fatalities caused by excess rains and floods. This year alone, dozens more lives have been lost during the monsoon's first three months in South Asia—a continent that includes India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Afghanistan. What was once a dependable pattern, though, the monsoon has become more intense and volatile, evolving into a force that overwhelms infrastructure with increasing frequency, causes landslides, and initiates mass displacement.

Climate scientists have been hypothesizing for years that the amplified global warming induced by the release of greenhouse gases would directly impact the water cycle, leading to more severe weather events. Monsoon is perhaps one of the most apparent and direct manifestations of this trend. With global warming, the planet can retain more water and consequently supply rain in excess over shorter periods. This not only heightens the risk of flash floods but also decreases the homogeneity and uniformity of rainfall across the season.

In the Himalayas, a water tower to much of South Asia, the consequence is even more foreboding. Rising temperature and increased rains are hastening glacial melting, and these serve as catalysts for activating glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and landslides. These disasters are especially disastrous for mountain communities far from the potential to weather such natural disasters. In the north of India and Nepal, the residents of towns at high elevations have watched rivers rise overnight, bridges be swept away, and roads disappear under walls of concrete-like mud and water.

The twin blow of glacial melt and intense monsoon rains is also putting enormous strain on already weakened ecosystems and stretched governments. In Bangladesh, where vast areas are low-lying and densely populated, catastrophic flooding inundated homes and fields, resulting in evacuations of large numbers and compromise of food supplies. Pakistan, which experienced a record flood in 2022, is still recovering even as fresh floodwaters move upstream. Monsoon-triggered landslides blocked roads and isolated remote villages in Sri Lanka and Bhutan, compounding the difficulties of rescue and relief efforts.

This is even more complicated with the reality that South Asia gets not only one but two monsoon seasons. The first monsoon from June to September runs from southwesterly to northeasterly directions, and the second monsoon from October to December runs in the opposite direction. The interaction between climate change effects on both monsoons makes the risk even greater and adaptation and readiness a challenging task for governments and people.

Urban areas are not spared either. Mumbai, Delhi, Dhaka, and Karachi have seen their infrastructure disintegrating under the force of unexpected cloudbursts. Downspouts, most of which were never intended to handle such quantities of water, clog in a matter of minutes, causing traffic chaos, waterlogged streets, and severe health issues due to contamination of potable water. The slum dwellers, who generally live in shoddily built houses on fragile land, get affected the worst.

Experts are sounding an alarm today to transition into this new climate reality. Enhanced forecasting networks, upgraded infrastructure planning, and local disaster preparedness will be essential to minimize damage. Regional coordination between South Asian countries will also be essential, especially in tackling common water resources as well as emergencies. The South Asian monsoon, once a reliable seasonal beat, is now capricious and powerful—an adaptive threat spawned out of the climate crisis.

As the region urbanizes and grows, the challenge will be to sustain growth without sacrificing resilience. Monsoon will always be part of South Asia's narrative. But what nations do with its evolving nature will decide whether it will remain a source of life or an annual bringer of calamity.