TotalEnergies Maps Three Global Energy Futures

TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 2025 presents a detailed analysis of the global energy  geography through 2050, outlining three possible circles toward a lower- carbon future. The French energy major envisions a world still reliant on fossil energies but steadily moving toward decarbonization through affordable low- carbon technologies and  transnational cooperation.

According to the report, fossil energies are projected to  regard for around 60 of global energy demand in 2050, compared with about 80  moment. This decline, though significant, highlights the scale of the transition challenge. TotalEnergies emphasizes the need to balance three precedences —  icing affordable energy access, maintaining  force security, and reducing emigrations. The company describes this as the central dilemma of the global energy system  furnishing “  further energy with smaller emigrations. ”

The Energy Outlook identifies electricity generation, transportation, and heat for artificial and domestic use as the top three sources of energy- related CO ₂ emigrations, together responsible for  further than 14 billion tons annually. With global energy demand still anticipated to rise — particularly in developing  husbandry TotalEnergies argues that lowering the carbon intensity of these sectors is  pivotal to meeting climate  pretensions.

Since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, the carbon intensity of the world’s energy  blend has fallen indeed as demand has grown. The company attributes this to the expanding  part of renewables, which  reckoned for nearly 80 of the increase in global electricity generation between 2023 and 2024. still, the report warns that indigenous  difference are widening, creating uneven progress toward decarbonization.

In the United States, abundant shale gas has replaced coal in power generation, helping the country come a net energy exporter. China continues to calculate heavily on coal but is also driving global cost reductions in solar, batteries, and electric vehicles through large- scale manufacturing. The European Union remains a leader in emigrations reduction but faces mounting challenges due to high investment  requirements and public resistance to rising decarbonization costs. TotalEnergies concludes that each region’s pathway depends on how it balances security, affordability, and sustainability.

To illustrate possible futures, the report models three long- term  scripts Trends, Momentum, and Rupture. Each  script reflects varying degrees of  transnational collaboration and technological progress.

The Trends  script assumes a  durability of current  programs, particularly in major  husbandry  similar as China and Europe. While renewable energy and electrification continue to grow, progress is hindered by grid backups and geopolitical insecurity. Under this  script, global  reactionary energy demand peaks around 2040 before gradationally declining, leading to a temperature increase of  roughly 2.6 °C to 2.8 °C by 2100.

The Momentum  script envisions  further coordinated global action, with OECD countries reaching net- zero emigrations by 2050 and China following by 2060. It calls for faster electrification, near-total coal phase- outs in advanced nations, and the use of natural gas as a transition energy. Hydrogen and sustainable energies would play a lesser  part in hard- to- abate sectors. Warming under this pathway would range between 2.2 °C and 2.4 °C.

The most ambitious, the Rupture  script, aligns with the Paris Agreement’s “ well below 2 °C ” target. It would bear  unknown  situations of  transnational collaboration,  rapid-fire phase- outs of coal, large- scale electrification, and  expansive deployment of renewables. Natural gas would retain a stabilizing  part as an interim fuel.However, global temperature rise could be limited to between 1, If achieved.7 °C and 1.9 °C. still, TotalEnergies acknowledges that such a  script remains doubtful given current geopolitical and  profitable constraints.

Across all models, electricity demand increases significantly as  husbandry come more digital and  galvanized. The report underscores that despite the growth of renewables,  oil painting and gas investment will remain necessary to  neutralize natural field declines and  help  force  dearths.

A  crucial theme of the Energy Outlook 2025 is the call for lesser  transnational cooperation on carbon  requests. TotalEnergies argues that moving beyond the “ Trends ” pathway requires a global strategy that prioritizes cost-effective decarbonization. The company supports mechanisms  similar as carbon trading under Composition 6 of the Paris Agreement, which allows  vindicated emigration reductions to be changed between countries and companies. This approach — described as “ global carbon arbitrage ” — would direct investment toward the most effective emigration- reduction  openings, particularly in developing regions where mitigation costs are lower.

Aurélien Hamelle, TotalEnergies’ President for Strategy and Sustainability, noted that while low- carbon technologies are expanding, affordability and energy security remain  burning  enterprises. He emphasized the  significance of  programs that support the most cost-effective CO ₂ reduction  results and strengthen global carbon  requests. “ Affordable low- carbon technologies are expanding  fleetly, but fossil energies will still represent 60 of primary energy demand in 2050, ” Hamelle said.

The Energy Outlook 2025 eventually presents a  realistic vision for the global energy transition — one  predicated in literalism rather than idealism. It suggests that progress toward net zero will depend not only on technological  invention but also on political cooperation,  profitable stability, and the  amenability of nations to act  inclusively. TotalEnergies positions itself as both an bystander and an active  party in shaping this transition, emphasizing that the road to a lower- carbon future will be uneven but attainable through balanced and inclusive strategies.