Canadian Cities Struggle to Prepare for Climate-Driven Migration

This summer in Canada, wildfires have forced thousands of people from their homes, drawing attention to the country's emerging issue of climate-driven migration. Some of the largest displacements have taken place in hot spots such as Newfoundland and Labrador, and also Manitoba. In northern Manitoba alone, there were evacuation orders for approximately 15,000 residents. Many of those displaced were sent to larger urban centres such as Winnipeg, where there was quickly no room left in hotels or emergency shelters.

While Canada has historically seen climate-driven migration as a distant expectation in other countries, instead of a pressing issue in Canada, recent evacuations suggest that climate-migration is becoming a regular part of life. Previous events such as the disruption of 88,000 people from Fort McMurray, Alberta, in 2016, and the incineration of Lytton, British Columbia, in 2021, highlight just how quickly people could be displaced from rural communities. Many communities affected by wildfires in Canada this summer, were remote and not well serviced through existing infrastructure, which may complicate and inflate the costs required for evacuations. For some areas of the country, this may mean that large-scale displacement may be a routine expectation in the future.

Rural-to-urban migration from climate events is not just a Canadian issue. Studies from impacted regions that are already urbanizing quickly, show how disasters create predictable effects to cities, especially when infrastructure and governance cannot keep pace with climate volatility. In countries like Nepal and the Philippines, it is quite common to see rural-to-urban migration happen very quickly and very informally with consideration of the pressures of urban services and urban infrastructure. After the 2015 earthquake, Kathmandu experienced uncontrolled growth, poorly constructed infrastructure, and strained services. Similarly, disaster recovery after typhoon events in the Philippines is often informally rebuilt, leading to extended urban slums and further disaster vulnerability. 

Similar pressures exist in Canada, but the circumstances vary. Although, some rural areas, especially in Indigenous communities who mostly occupy rural land, already struggle to get basic services. While rural areas of Canada are 18% of the total population, they are served by only 8% of the physicians. Many school districts are closing or consolidating due to under-funding. Housing costs across rural and urban settings are out of control and basic infrastructure in many areas is already stressed. Together, all of these factors make up the context for a slow-moving crisis which is now being intensified through climate events.

During evacuations, affected residents often seek shelter in urban areas, where a certain level of public infrastructure can provide a level of stability. Urban centers, especially smaller urban centers, can experience a large inflow of people seeking shelter, which puts stress upon the housing, transportation, and even emergency services. Unfortunately, Canadian policy is more reactionary than proactive. There is no national framework to initiate dialogue around internal climate migration, and immigration and housing policies neither consider displacement from climate events, nor do they create policies catered to urban populations. Disaster response is usually undertaken collaboratively by municipalities and provinces, through short-term temporary measures: emergency shelters, emergency hotlines, and so forth.

Canada possesses unique opportunities to learn from fellow states in which urban systems are designed to withstand rapid population movements in addition to other disaster bureaucracies. In Taiwan, seismic-sensitive civic centers can become emergency shelters—permitting longer shelter than temporary food trucks are able to implement—because it operates normally as a civic center, with backup power, water, and earthquake-proof structures. In Japan, disaster-prevention facilities are being designed and fit into parks, which can include solar lights, cooking stations, and toilets, all in event of a disaster created in a public green space. In Mongolia, incremental urban strategies have been formulated, to take into consideration less certain settlement patterns, by clustering the growth, services, and housing, to allow for flexible urban adaptation in response to a new urbanism vision of making tensions and/or disasters manageable. The manner in which Japan and Mongolia employ these opportunities may be adoptable to conditions in Canada, suggesting an alternative model of emergency response and urban planning are deliberately co-ordinated as two sides of a narrative, as opposed to segregated functions.

In the face of climate migration, Canada must frame a national response plan that pushes climate displacement into the National Housing Strategy. Initiatives should be established at all levels of government for prioritizing multi-use resilience infrastructure, which may include schools and community centres that include emergency response capabilities. Adaptive housing policies should allow urban housing supply to respond to fluctuations in demand. Multi-level planning can mitigate population surge in urban areas meant for placement while ensuring that displaced people have safe and secure living arrangements. 

The roles of architects and urban planners are also significant in regards to preparing for climate migration. This goes beyond buildings; engaging with the governance of land, infrastructure, and migration in a way that uses their capacity to create communities that are just and physically protected from risks. The profession needs to recognize the necessity for proactive practice as opposed to merely being a service entity, and embrace participation in policy development and inter-institutional collaboration. In working with people, municipalities, and other segments, architects can help form urban systems that can cope with on-going climate-related strains.

A national summit might offer the basis for this transition, bringing together professionals, policymakers, and member of communities to develop a path for climate migration. A forum could inform the development of tools, policies, and partnerships to assist with both short-term objectives and long-term transformative urbanism. Some emphasis must be placed on more systematic approaches intended to work proactively with displacement rather than respond to it reactively, and support Canadian cities in thinking carefully and deliberately about climate-induced movement of populations.

True to Canada's geography, institutions, and urban architecture, there are context-specific solutions. We can glean many lessons from international practices. However, these cannot just be copied or applied en masse. Local contextual planning must be sensitive to existing infrastructure, population patterns, and relative climate risk so that we can ensure existing resilience. If we move toward adaptive urban design and inclusive policy development; this will increase Canadian cities immediate response to climate displacement who process actions such as mobility will mitigate potential social and economic impacts for disasters.