An El Niño phenomenon is forecast to emerge during the months of May and July 2026, according to the latest report by the World Meteorological Organization, marking a change in global weather trends after several years of neutral patterns.

Models point to clear signs of occurrence, with warming water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific pointing to an emergence into the El Niño phase. The forecasts also predict further strengthening of the phenomenon following its development.

This climate system constitutes one of the phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, affecting wind patterns, precipitation, and temperatures globally. This phenomenon occurs once every two to seven years and lasts nine to twelve months.

The phenomenon will affect global temperatures in the next few months, with expectations of above-average land temperatures in various regions. Earlier phases of the El Niño cycle have been witnessed alongside high global temperatures, such as in 2023-2024.

Regional impacts can be different from one region to another. During El Niño weather conditions, there is usually increased precipitation in some areas in the southern part of South America, the southern part of the USA, the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia, yet the opposite situation is experienced in Australia, Indonesia, and some parts of southern Asia.

It should be noted that meteorological organizations state that forecasts conducted during spring in the northern hemisphere have uncertainties because of what is referred to as “the spring predictability barrier”, meaning that models are less accurate at such times. Generally, confidence in predictions increases after April.

So far, there is not enough scientific evidence on whether climate change has any effect on the occurrence of El Niño weather phenomena. However, there might be an effect on the strength of impacts, depending on the level of warmth of the Earth’s surface and oceans.

Advance prediction helps various countries and sectors, such as agriculture and disaster relief organizations, make preparations before any disturbances occur.