Extreme Precipitation Increasing in Arid Northwest China Due to Global Warming, Study Finds
A study by the Chinese Academy of Sciences shows that extreme precipitation in arid Northwest China has increased significantly due to global warming. The research highlights rising rainfall intensity and reduced dry spells, linked to oceanic temperature anomalies. These changes pose major challenges for water management and disaster risk planning.
There is a recent research conducted by researchers from the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography (XIEG) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences that showed a remarkable rise in extreme precipitation events (EPEs) over the arid regions of Northwest China. Published in the Journal of Hydrology, the study indicates rising trends in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme rainfall during the period of observation from 1961 to 2022. These changes are highly linked to global warming and are expected to impact water resource availability and disaster preparedness in one of China's most environmentally vulnerable areas. The study is based on extensive analysis using the CN05.1 high-resolution climate dataset and includes evaluation of six extreme precipitation indicators in addition to 13 large-scale climate variables, enabling scientists to identify spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation change and determinants of change.
According to the study, there has been a measurable decrease in persistent dry days, which is reducing at the rate of 0.65 per year on average. On the other hand, there are increases on a yearly basis in heavy rain days, total precipitation, and the maximum daily rainfall, with rising trends of 0.067%, 0.49 mm, and 0.42 mm per annum, respectively. These increases translate to an unequivocal trend towards more frequent and heavier precipitation events in an area previously characterized by aridity and water scarcity. The trend is a big challenge to regional hydrology and disaster risk planning, particularly where there are flash flood tendencies and water resource shortages.
The study also blames the increasing EPEs on sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans. The SST changes disrupt atmospheric circulation patterns, which cause enhanced water vapor transport towards inland northwest China. Oceanic temperature variability interaction with regional climate systems is identified as a leading mechanism controlling the rise in extreme precipitation. Using the geographic detector model, the analysis quantifies the contribution of each climate variable to the changing patterns, with emphasis on rising complexity of precipitation dynamics with changing global climate conditions.
The researchers emphasize that it is essential to understand the dynamics to improve regional resilience to climate threats. Enhanced forecasting and early warning is needed to promote improved preparation against the enhanced hydrological extremes currently being faced. The findings are essential data for developing new water management strategies, flood control systems, and ecosystem conservation policies. For example, infrastructure such as reservoirs, drainage systems, and irrigation planning in arid regions will need to be altered to accommodate the new paradigm of more volatile and intense rainfalls. The data can also be used to inform urban development and agriculture that are based on stable precipitation regimes.
The research points out how climate change is reshaping weather extremes even in regions traditionally not anticipated to have heavy rainfall. The arid regions of northwest China, including regions of Xinjiang, Gansu, and Qinghai provinces, are extremely sensitive to hydrological alteration due to their intrinsic aridity and ecological fragility. Increased precipitation can alleviate short-term water shortages but also brings with it inherent risks such as soil erosion, flooding, and disruption to agriculture and human habitation. In particular, brief but intense precipitation in mountain and desert areas has the potential to lead to dangerous flash floods that are difficult to predict and manage without proper infrastructure and advance notice.
With the long-term data employed and the application of modern analytical methods, the study offers one of the most fine-grained observations of how extreme weather is evolving in this part of Asia. The trends experienced in the area align with broader global patterns in which climate change is amplifying floods and droughts, disturbing established weather patterns, and introducing new variables to environmental planning. The research contributes valuable scientific understanding to inform decision-makers and climate adaptation planning stakeholders.
Overall, the paper offers a compelling call to action regarding the shifting precipitation regimes in arid Northwest China. The amplified extreme precipitation events induced by global climate changes pose advanced risks to water resource stability and disaster preparedness. These findings reaffirm the necessity for anticipatory policies and interregional collaboration to boost climate resilience and enable the sustainable development of vulnerable arid environments.
Source: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Credits: Zhang Nannan, Chinese Academy of Sciences | Journal of Hydrology, 2025 | DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133182
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