Hurricane Intensity on the Rise: Climate Change Under Scrutiny

Supercharging Hurricane Activity under Climate Change: A Call to Action

Region-wide hurricane activity in the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific is expected to increase in intensity and frequency over the next decade, a new UK University of Reading research study finds. The report says that increasing evidence of a link between climate change and hurricanes prompts it to make the call for increased and improved protection of vulnerable coast communities.

The study projected the North Atlantic tropical cyclones to double and triple the number of storms in 1970, and the Eastern Pacific will experience more than one-third more cyclones. Along with raising the storm numbers, the total energy generated by the storms will be higher at record amounts.

Increases in Storm Intensity
Using advanced climate forecast models that have been formulated by the UK Met Office's DePreSys4 initiative, Reading scientists could forecast sudden changes in hurricane extreme behavior in the future. The intensity of North Atlantic storms may be twice the 1970s' storm intensity, revealed the research. Two principal environmental factors behind such an increase in storm numbers are rising sea surface temperature and an alteration of atmospheric winds.

Warmth of the oceans increased is one of the major reasons that attract more hurricanes. The warming ocean means more energy available with which to generate their size and strength. The changes in the wind pattern and also the altered winds at the different altitudes in the air will contribute additional hurricane-growing beneficial conditions, said the report. Natural climatic variation and long-term modification of the world by human activities are the adjustments. Impact of Climate Change

It cannot be separated from any single tropical cyclone as a function of climate change, but measurable impacts of increasing global temperature on hurricanes have been discovered by researchers.
Rising storm wind speed is presumably the most significant impact. Hurricane storms also include storms which derive energy from even warmer sea water and stronger winds. 2019-2023 record hurricane peak wind speeds were each enhanced by an estimated average of 19 mph (30 km/h) owing to anthropogenic ocean warming. Moreover, warm air holds more water, causing more heavy precipitation. With additional moisture in the air, the storms are now strong enough to bring more heavy rainfall, such as that which occurred in Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Science has demonstrated that climate change boosted event-level extreme precipitation events like Harvey by roughly three times, and similarly amplified the preparedness for the stronger storms.

These prescriptions in this report place action on climate first with necessity. As more intense and recurring hurricanes loom on the horizon of the next decades, coast cities are being set up for enhanced exposure. Investment in preparedness for disasters, funding for infrastructure, and policy for the reversal of the increase of rising greenhouse gas emissions must be implemented in an attempt to mitigate the impact of such storms.

The Human Activity Role

The research is also consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, which have determined with "high confidence" that the increased precipitation with tropical cyclones have an element of human causation.
There is also a "medium confidence" that the increasing trend in Atlantic hurricane activity since the 1970s has an induced component due to human activities. These findings once again verify the association between global climatic change and hurricane intensifying trends in both the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Oceans. The globe has already been negatively affected by climate extremes' long-term effects through economic loss, social disruption, and environmental deterioration. With more intense and more frequent hurricanes, it is increasingly necessary that governments and global leaders become aware of the necessity to implement policies to reduce climate change.

Meeting the Challenges Ahead

Increased risk of more intense hurricanes translates into global action to stop global warming. Greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced and global warming slowed. In the meantime, investment in climate-resilient infrastructure and planning for extreme weather can protect coastal villages.
Improving disaster response systems, building retrofitting in coastal regions, and improving early warning systems will save lives and reduce hurricane damage. In addition, a shift to cleaner energy and climate-resilient development will mitigate future hurricanes in terms of frequency and the impact of their occurrence.

As the climate crisis keeps deteriorating on a global level, evading long-term effects of climate change in societies across the world will be most important to attain through the understanding of what leads to climate change and how to restore it. With effective climate policy, investment in resilience, and global cooperation, damage from increasingly more powerful and frequent hurricanes can be controlled.

Source This article is based on research conducted by the University of Reading and the UK Met Office’s DePreSys4 climate prediction software