Shipping's Climate Gap: 2030 Success, 2050 Failure?

The global shipping sector will achieve its goal of reducing emissions by 2030 but will not be able to deliver on its 2050 net-zero ambitions, a new report published in Earth's Future by researchers at the University of British Columbia (UBC) claims. The research has been released at the same time as the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) Marine Environment Protection Committee recently reached agreement on new measures to reduce the carbon footprint of the sector. The study polled 149 international shipping sector specialists in 2021 and gauged their forecasts of decarbonisation routes and pragmatic and policy difficulties that remain in place.

Reports indicate that carbon intensity, or the quantity of CO₂ produced per unit freight moved over a distance, is expected to decline by 30 to 40% by 2030 as compared to levels in 2008. The reduction is due to the implementation of operational and technical solutions like higher fuel efficiency, better logistics, and modern ship design. These are short-term in character but already implemented in different stages of deployment among world fleets, with a good basis to achieve near-term emissions targets.

But the way to 2050's net-zero goal seems much less assured. Surveys of experts show that carbon reductions in 2050 will be 40% to 75% below 2008 levels—far short of the broad-scale decarbonization required to secure the net-zero goal. Progress in the latter half of the period depends on overcoming the difficulties of the transition to low- or zero-carbon sources like ammonia, hydrogen, and wind-power-driven propulsion technology.

Optimism levels by professional experience in the maritime industry were also tested in the report. Less than 10 years of experience was associated with greater confidence in being able to make substantial cuts in emissions, while those with experience of over 30 years were more negative. This difference is indicative of a possible generational divide in expectations and perceived feasibility, which can influence future policy and investment campaigns.

One of the most urgent concerns the report lists is the issue of policy certainty. It takes many years to make green energy alternatives a reality by investing in infrastructure and new technology. Shipowners and investors will only make the commitment if there are stable policy environments. Although some alternative fuels and ship designs are already underway, their wide-scale implementation heavily relies on government incentives, regulatory certainty, and market incentives.

Despite recent attempts by the IMO to increase regulations, including emissions caps and efficiency standards, the full integration of the industry with the 2050 net-zero target is unlikely without stronger policy enforcement and technology scaling. The report points out that though there is progress, current efforts are insufficient to meet long-term climate objectives without drastic action.

The experts also opined that shipping at sea, as a globalized and integrated business, can have the potential to play a crucial role in supporting the wider green energy revolution. As one of the largest global emitters, the transition of the shipping business towards cleaner operations can have the potential to trigger innovation and demand in the energy and manufacturing industry. But that potential can only be tapped if existing impediments like high transition cost, green fuels in short supply, and dispersed regulatory environments are removed early enough.

Overall, the report gives a candid overview of progress and shortcomings in the industry. It asserts that although existing technical solutions have made the 2030 objectives feasible, a 2050 net-zero goal is an ambitious target to achieve with needed immediate investment, strong policy framework, and international cooperation. The researchers urge continuous monitoring, open reporting, and industry-wide cooperation for a faster transition and to make shipping a beneficial contribution to the world's climate objectives.

Source/Credits:
University of British Columbia | Earth's Future Journal | DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005255 | Credit: Unsplash/CC0 Public Domain