Wales Warned of Unrecognisable Future Without Urgent Action

Wales' Future Generations Commissioner has given a stark warning on the direction of the country in the future, citing rising environmental threats, long-established poverty, and worsening public health as warnings of an unrecognisable future unless radically different methods of working are urgently put in place. The position, established under the Well-being of Future Generations Act 2015, exists to put long-term vision on behalf of public bodies on behalf of present and future citizens. Derek Walker, who came into the post in 2022, published his five-year statutory report on progress ahead of next year's Senedd elections, and achievement and notable failure were logged throughout Wales' public sector.

The report does highlight some important developments, such as recycling rates in Wales at a record high and fresh investment in sustainable transport for the public. It noted that although these developments were however being overshadowed by major reversals, specifically climate crisis, loss of biodiversity, and socioeconomic inequality. One out of every six species in Wales is already under threat of extinction, and nearly 273,000 homes are already threatened by flooding — a figure set to double in the next century as climate change and sea level rises increase. The commissioner explained that while the Welsh government has made it its ambition for public sector organisations to achieve net zero by 2030, the majority of bodies have no idea how they are going to do this without a huge shot in the arm in terms of money.

One of the biggest issues raised in the report is that there is no legally binding nature recovery target, and that this has meant a lack of prioritisation of biodiversity in public planning. It needs new legislation to equip Natural Resources Wales with civil enforcement powers of sanction to issue stop orders and fines on polluters. In the meantime, new flood risk maps published by the agency reveal increasing exposure in communities along North Wales' coastline and other floodplains, yet again highlighting the necessity of full climate adaptation plans.

Another sector where little progress has been seen is poverty. Between 2021 and 2023, over 20% of those living in Wales are in relative poverty on their incomes, and virtually a third of the country's children are living in poverty still. Only yet having taken up the call for all public authorities to participate in the voluntary Real Living Wage is 13 out of 56 so far. The commissioner called for every organisation to have a defined strategy to achieve this within two years.

Outcomes in public health also seem to be declining. Wales currently has the highest rate of prevalence of diabetes in the UK, and NHS Wales spends around 10% of its budget treating the condition. The report notes that Type 2 diabetes is largely preventable through healthier living, but that prevention expenditure has declined. Rates of obesity are also high, with a quarter of all adults now being obese. Mental health indicators are also in decline, with worsening life satisfaction and rising anxiety levels among adults. On current trends, on average people in Wales will now spend the final 20 years of their lives in poor health.

The report details the reductions in spending on preventive care as an act of self-destructive policymaking, with the threat that the health system is being overburdened with preventable conditions. As the population ages and acute care demand increases, the public health system is said to be at breaking point, with a decade of austerity having its impact.

Cultural consequences in Wales also raised concerns with the report referring to how arts are not valued as a contributing factor to the public's good. The situation in the arts sector was given a label as a crisis by the commissioner as cultural participation increases social cohesion as well as mental health. Advertising creative industries came across as being an investment priority rather than as a spending option.

While the Future Generations Act left Wales at the forefront of law-making for future citizens, a shortfall between enactment and implementation was highlighted in the report. Public Service Boards, part of bringing organisations together through partnership, were found to have been under-resourced and ineffective in some respects. Leadership throughout the public sector had been patchy, and the move towards long-term thinking remains to be successfully embedded within decision-making culture.

The commissioner urged government to review the Act, suggesting that it be followed by a national debate on the country's future direction. This is in line with the conclusion of another Wales Audit Office report published on the same day, which stated that the Act is not yet influencing the systemic change it was meant to. Even though several of the institutions have managed to incorporate the law into planning, most of them — with the largest percentage coming from the health sector — have registered no or very little indication of performing the same.

The report also lauded such initiatives as the GwyrddNi programme in Gwynedd, which ran climate assemblies to create green projects at a local level. These were described as examples of how civic engagement can be turned into real improvement, though the commissioner was anxious to add that even more of this kind of work should be done.

The commissioner's and audit office's report was received by the Welsh government, informing them that the Act has transformed decision-making and sustainability is still the priority number one. The officials indicated the report's proposals were being considered and a formal response would follow after further consideration.

The progress report is a call to action to the government and public authorities in Wales. It shows that there is legislative machinery for long-term thinking in existence, but there is catch-up action required on the interrelated issues of climate resilience, public health, and social justice. The future standard of living of Welsh citizens over generations depends on whether or not public authorities can translate intention into impact over the next few years.

Source and Credits:
Source: BBC Wales News | Author: Steffan Messenger | Data: Office of the Future Generations Commissioner for Wales, Wales Audit Office