The ongoing El Niño is likely to be the strongest on record, with forecast models predicting an extreme El Niño event that may lead to droughts, floods, and other extreme weather events around the world, according to a leading climate expert.

The forecast was unprecedented in more than 30 years of El Niño monitoring, according to Tim Stockdale, an expert on El Niño at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Stockdale told the Times of India that he believed it was "absolutely true to say" that this was the strongest and most consistent El Niño forecast in his lifetime. It would be "a very, very big surprise" if the current event does not surpass previous records, he said.

El Niño is a natural climate event where there is a warming up of the surface water in the central and eastern equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean. It is experienced every two to seven years and normally lasts for nine to 12 months during which time it causes some areas to experience drought conditions while others face flooding. The intensity of El Niño is usually highest between November and February, though it can affect the temperature around the world even later in the season. The last El Niño coupled with climate change made 2023 the second-hottest year and 2024 the hottest year ever.

Last week, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) also indicated that El Niño would intensify rapidly from July to September, prompting the organisation to prepare contingency measures. UN food aid agencies have also called for more resources to be directed towards prevention efforts in at-risk areas.

The agricultural department is in the process of formulating plans that will help farmers cope with reduced rainfall in India. El Niño impacts the monsoon in South Asia, and causes reduced rainfall not only in India but also in other nations where hundreds of millions depend on seasonal rains for farming and other purposes.

Apart from South Asia, El Nino will also cause heavy precipitation in parts of the Horn of Africa, drought, heatwaves, and wildfires in Australia, and more floods and landslides along the coastlines of Peru and Ecuador.