IMD Forecasts Strong Monsoon for 2025: Positive Outlook for Agriculture and Indian Economy

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast an above-normal monsoon for the 2025 season, offering positive signals for India's agriculture sector and overall economic stability. The monsoon, which spans from June 1 to September 30, is expected to bring cumulative rainfall at 105% of the long-period average (LPA) of 87 cm, with a model error of ±5%.

According to the IMD's seasonal forecast released on April 15, most regions across India are likely to receive sufficient rainfall, although some parts of Tamil Nadu and the northeastern states may witness below-normal precipitation. On the other hand, previously rain-deficient areas like Marathwada and adjoining Telangana are expected to benefit from above-average rainfall this season.

This year’s forecast is supported by neutral conditions in global climatic factors like El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole, along with decreased snow cover across Eurasia and the Northern Hemisphere. These conditions are conducive to a favorable monsoon, which plays a vital role in the Indian economy.

Rainfall between 96% and 104% of the LPA is classified as normal, while 105% to 110% is considered above-normal, and anything above 110% falls under excess rainfall. The IMD forecast indicates a 30% probability of normal rainfall, 33% of above-normal, and 26% chance of excess precipitation.

The Indian economy, particularly the agricultural sector, heavily depends on the southwest monsoon. Nearly 42.3% of the population relies on agriculture for livelihood, and the sector contributes about 18.2% to the national GDP. Adequate rainfall is essential for both crop yield and water resource management across the country.

A good monsoon helps in stabilizing food prices and controlling inflation. It boosts rural demand by increasing income levels in agrarian regions. Moreover, the strong monsoon is expected to support India’s status as the world's largest rice exporter and may increase exports of other staples such as sugar and onions. It could also reduce dependency on imports of edible oils.

The forecast comes at a time when inflation has shown signs of easing. India’s retail inflation rate dropped to 3.34% in March 2025, marking the slowest pace in over five years. This softening of food prices is attributed partly to improved supply conditions, which are expected to continue under a strong monsoon scenario.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), responding to lower inflation, has already cut its key repo rate twice in recent months and adjusted its monetary policy stance. With a steady agricultural outlook, further interest rate cuts are expected, aimed at revitalizing domestic consumption and spurring economic growth amid external challenges such as trade tariffs.

In summary, the IMD's prediction of an above-normal monsoon brings encouraging signs for the Indian economy. Higher agricultural output, increased rural demand, and stable inflation levels are likely outcomes if the forecast holds, strengthening both domestic and export sectors in the financial year 2025–26.

Source:India Meteorological Department (IMD)