Japan Sets 2035 GHG Emissions Target: A Look at the Challenges

Japan Announces New Climate Targets but Short of Global Targets

Japan released a new climate policy with more aggressive greenhouse gas emission reduction targets, a last-minute U-turn of the country's green energy policy. It set new targets on February 18, 2025, at 60% reduction in 2035 from the base year 2013 and 73% reduction in 2040. The new target comes after Japan's earlier target for 2030 at 46% reduction of emissions, an indication that it is going all out for decarbonization.

While the new targets are improved, Japan's continued investment in fossil fuel power plants has critics wondering if its climate policy is working. Critics are highlighting the contradiction between Japan's high-profile response to climate change and continued backing of LNG projects.

Revised Climate Targets and Strategies
The new policy for global warming, supported by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's administration, is targeting to give companies long-term stability in policy, encouraging decarbonization, and building industrial vigor while ensuring reliable energy supplies. The government publicly announced the new policy to the United Nations as a move in positioning Japan in the lead to fight greenhouse gas emissions globally.

The new targets will place considerably mounting pressure on Japan to cut down its carbon imprint over the subsequent two decades. Japan, currently the world's fifth-largest emitter of carbon dioxide, will need to act hastily in an effort to achieve its 2035 and 2040 targets. Although Japan has made significant advancements towards becoming less reliant on fossil fuels, the nation still finds itself struggling with achieving the targets.

Japan's government responds to meet its climate goals with its energy requirements through clean energy and nuclear expansion. Japan was tested after the 2011 Fukushima meltdown and the closure of nearly all of its nuclear reactors. Japan has been increasingly dependent increasingly on fossil fuels since years ago, and this need for clean sources of power is more urgent than ever.

LNG Financing and Environmental Impacts
Though Japan's ambitious climate ambitions have been universally applauded, its investment in fossil fuel projects has green eyebrows raised. Government-owned banking giant Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) has been one of the largest financiers of liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects. JBIC has made a total investment of $18.6 billion in LNG production from 2016 through this year, nearly five times Japan country contribution of $4.2 billion to Green Climate Fund.

Japan leads the world in LNG imports, but the fuel demand has been going down. Japan's demand for LNG dropped by 25% since 2014 and also projected to decrease another 25% by 2030. Japan is slowing its transition towards nuclear and alternative energy sources because of a declining population. Even with such lowered demand, though, JBIC is investing in the new LNG proposals to others' raising an eyebrow at the long-term viability of profitability of the investments. The financing of the LNG projects has been made subject to a large number of environmental as well as social issues.

Case studies in the impacted countries establish that the projects are linked to enormous environmental destruction, i.e., habitat loss, and increased greenhouse gas emissions. Human rights complaints have also been made regarding LNG project development and construction in the majority of countries. Continuous investment in LNG terminals has been criticized as inconsistent with Japan's claimed climate ambition and Paris Agreement objectives. Global Concerns Over Japan's Climate Efforts

Japan's plan to reduce emissions has made headlines around the world, yet there is always the question of how much and how quickly it will do it. The country's pledge to reduce emissions by 46% in 2030 was greeted with open arms. Experts argue, however, that Japan needs to do even more to achieve the lofty goals outlined in the Paris Agreement.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has taken into account that the nations of the world contributing Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) will result in a temperature increase of only 2.6°C by 2030. That is higher than the target of the Paris Agreement to keep global warming within 1.5°C. Japan, for instance, is lagging behind in action when it comes to climate change.

Japan's NDCs are at the global climate policy epicenter, and new targets fall into that direction. Expenditure on fossil fuel initiatives, particularly LNG, is suspect considering whether Japan is capable of matching its economic dreams and climate dreams.

Challenges in Meeting Global Climate Objectives

Japan's new climate strategy is in the right direction, but it won't be easy. Japan's ongoing investment in LNG plants and its previous over-reliance on fossil fuels is Japan's largest hurdle to reaching its climate goals. Japan diversified nicely into cleaner forms of energy, but maybe not early enough to help the country reach its ambitious 2035 and 2040 emissions goals.
To pursue its own goals and contribute significantly to international climate action, Japan needs to speed up the transition to clean energy, reduce its dependence on fossil fuels, and meet the environmental and social expenses of its overseas investment. The rest of the world will be watching Japan because what the nation does will be the turning point for the fight against climate change.

Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, Mongabay